Day Trading – The Bullz And Bearz

Early Morning Futures Slide With Crude

March 24th, 2010

The fresh worries about European debt more than offset expected signs of growth here at home as the futures are sliding this morning along with crude oil. There are a lot of economic reports coming out later on this week and next along with earnings season right around the corner. Here’s an intra-day look at the NASDAQ just to shake things up a bit. Trade safe out there!

A Date Which Will Live…

March 22nd, 2010

Stocks are getting crushed this morning after the health care bill and Greece’s debt crisis. Both fundamental debt problems are likely to lead us lower the rest of the week. For now here are the updated levels on the S&P for you all.

Late Sunday, the House approved a $940 billion health care reform package that will, among other things, require all Americans to have insurance and prevent insurers from denying coverage based on gender or pre-existing conditions. President Obama will sign the measure into law. Sad, sad day!

Green Beer Hangover

March 18th, 2010

It’s not hard to imagine that most stocks in the S&P 500 are trading above their 50-day moving average. I mean we have been on a 14-day winning streak in a row for the markets.

However, the most recent push higher by the market has put the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving averages at 85%.  Room up top is getting crowded. Puts would be in order today.

Bullish Luck of The Irish?

March 17th, 2010

Happy St. Patrick’s Day everyone! I actually really really enjoy this holiday. There’s something about the green beer and such that get’s me going. Anyhow, expiration day is in 2 days and we are still holding strong to our belief that the markets will close the end of the week near where they are right now. As far as the charts go, notice that the INDU (DOW JONES) has both broken out of it’s projection bands and continues to be in over-bought territory.

What’s This New Banking Bill About?

March 15th, 2010

Over the weekend a new Banking Bill has really taken the front stage. World stock markets are lower today as investors fretted about the status of this banking bill and are awaiting confirmation of a rescue package for debt-laden Greece. As far as the S&P chart is concerned, we are once again looking at support that is far away.

Everyone is really unsure whether the bill will gain support from the U.S. Senate — last week financial stocks were in demand on expectations that the bill would fail to get the necessary support from the Senate but that could all change this week.

Long Term S&P 500 Chart

March 12th, 2010

This long term S&P 500 chart says it all here traders. We have come full circle on the bottom from last March. We have gone almost NOWHERE since November. The risk/reward is just not there…

Resistance Still Close Overhead For SPX

March 10th, 2010

/ES and /NQ stock market futures are trading in a tight range this morning traders. Seems the market is continuing to pause here just below the recent highs from a couple months ago, waiting for some news to drive it one way or another. Here are the updated index levels on the SPX intra-day chart.

Today everyone will be examining a report in The Wall Street Journal saying the Federal Reserve is debating how to signal the next rate move, though the central bank is unlikely to change its phrasing about keeping interest rates near zero for a long time during next week’s meeting.

S&P Technically Has Great Support Here

March 9th, 2010

S&P 500 index futures are lower this morning as commodities weakened ahead of a report expected to show another increase in crude oil inventories, a bearish sign for demand in the world’s largest energy consumer. Technology shares will also be in focus one day after Texas Instruments Inc (TXN.N) raised its quarterly earnings and revenue forecast. Oil prices slipped as expected on a stronger dollar and expectations that crude inventories will continue to rise. For now, here are the levels we are working with on the S&P. Actually there are some pretty good support levels below us so it’s going to take some serious selling to break these.

We Still LOST Jobs Last Week!

March 8th, 2010

Listen people, we still lost jobs last week. As much as the market’s will try to sugarcoat things now, the reality is here to stay. The report Friday said 36,000 U.S. jobs were lost in February, compared with forecasts 50,000, resulting in a rally that pushed the Dow and S&P to close at six-week highs.

So we LOST fewer jobs than expected but we still LOST jobs! Unbelievable.

For today please check out the SPX chart below. Watch for a sell-off this week down to the first support level at the least.

GS Goldman Sachs Stock Breakout

March 5th, 2010

Goldman Sachs (GS) stock had a huge breakout yesterday. Not only did it break out above a key area of price resistance yesterday but GS volume rose above average. The breakout above major resistance is shown on the daily chart below. Typically these breakouts will run to the next higher resistance level which we have shown here for you.

Bulls Fail To Hold Yesterday’s Highs

March 4th, 2010

The jobs numbers are coming out soon and of course will play a major role in today’s market direction. Yesterday is what I want to focus on though – with the market failing to hold the highs intra-day. See the chart below but the main thing to grab onto here is that they market rallied early morning and mid-day but then sold off just as fast into the close. What this means is that the market (at least for yesterday) had no confidence in higher prices. Again today will be important…

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Tuesday Morning SPX Support/Resistance Levels

March 2nd, 2010

Yesterday was a great day for the markets and anyone who dared go bullish. The day ended on a high note and ironically right at target resistance level. All the indicators for momentum and trend show clear bearish divergence even at these high prices. So for now the support/resistance levels on the intra-day chart remain the same and are updated below for you all.

I would watch for a slightly higher open and then a close lower on some good volume selling. As I talked with another coaching member last night – the VIX now below 20 for the second time has got me at least a little worried that the bullish move will be over soon and with a swift move lower.

The Big Picture

March 1st, 2010

USD, Oil, Greece – All Predicting Lower Move

February 25th, 2010

Here’s the scoop on this morning Briefing – U.S. stock index down after rating agencies said they may downgrade Greece’s sovereign debt, reigniting concerns over possible defaults in the euro zone that have dogged markets in the recent week or so. Moody’s said a downgrade of 1 or 2 notches is possible in the next month. As a result Oil has dropped on the dollar rise. For today – the SPX is hitting right up against resistance. The likely move is going to be much lower and heading back down to near the lows from the recent bottom.

Today there’s the report on employment and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s second day of testimony.

Updated S&P Intra-Day Levels

February 24th, 2010

Futures look to be edging higher this morning as Ben Bernanke goes to Capitol Hill to address Congress yet again. For now the intra-day chart looks like this. Support and resistance are fairly similar in distance away so it will be all on Uncle Ben to devlier for the Bulls today.

Bernanke will deliver his twice-a-year economic report to Congress, will be under more pressure than usual. It’s an election year for lawmakers, whose constituents face near-double-digit unemployment, record-high home foreclosures and tough-to-get credit, especially for small businesses. The unemployment rate, now at 9.7 percent, is expected to drop only slowly. Many economists think it will take until the middle of this decade for the jobless rate to decline to a more normal 5.5 percent to 6 percent.

Consecutive Closes Odds Favor Sell-Off

February 23rd, 2010

The the Russell has been on a 9-day winning streak – the most consecutive closes higher in over 3 years! Odds clearly favor a lower close in the near futures and each day higher only means the odds will increase.

EEM Emerging Market ETF

February 22nd, 2010

The EEM iShares emerging market ETF has recently rallied on speculation Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke may keep interest rates near record lows. It’s actually been on a good rally along with the markets since early February. A target somewhere around $41 may not be out of the question.

USD Rally Coming To An End?

February 18th, 2010

The USD Index has been strong over the last couple months but recently showed a bearish MACD cross on the daily chart. From here a move down to support is highly probable.

One of the key developments to note is in Gold, which drew strong support recently and could be ahead of the turn in the USD. Nevertheless, gold will need to break resistance soon.

Will Markets Continue Higher Today or Fall?

February 17th, 2010

Yesterday was very good for the over-sold markets. I mean we basically have told everyone since the HAMMER PATTERN that we would see a rebound in the markets. But now that we are here – will the market carry through onto higher prices or start to falter? On an intra-day chart I don’t see us getting much higher than the recent highs of early Feb.

The dollar fell as investors felt less of a need to stash their money in safer investments. Oil, gold and other commodities joined stocks as the beneficiaries of the market’s renewed confidence. And the stocks of energy and materials producers were among the day’s big winners.

European markets also rose following new plans by European Union leaders to push Greece to get its budget under control. European officials gave Greece one month to prove it can cut its deficits. Debt problems in European countries including Greece, Portugal and Spain have been a major factor behind weakness in global stock markets in recent weeks.

In the U.S., Kraft Foods Inc. and apparel retailer Abercrombie & Fitch reported earnings that beat expectations, while drugmaker Merck & Co. said profits jumped after the company bought its longtime partner Schering-Plough Corp.

Will The Indexes Break Resistance Today?

February 16th, 2010

The big question this week is: Will the indexes break resistance? This morning stock futures are higher after a long holiday weekend. Earnings and economic reports throughout the option expiration week are likely to be scrutinized to see if the U.S. economy is continuing to improve despite concerns about overseas growth.

European markets rose following new plans by European Union leaders to push Greece to contain its growing debt problems. European leaders on Monday said Greece will have another month to come up with a plan to reduce its deficit, but again pledged to support the debt-burdened country.

Oil prices also joined a broad-based rally in commodities, as the dollar edged lower against rival currencies while Gold futures gained $24 to $1,114 an ounce.

The junk bond ETF HYB is continuing to sell off this week as investors are selling out of “junk” bonds at the fastest rate since September 2005, in the latest indication that concerns over sovereign debt are spreading to other credit markets. Nearly $1 billion was withdrawn from US funds that hold high-yield corporate bonds (junk bonds) in the past month.

The HYG which is the most widely tracked ETF shows us how much investor’s are selling this off right now. Good support isn’t until much lower.