Day Trading – The Bullz And Bearz

Drop In Jobless Claims Sends Markets Higher

December 31st, 2009

Jobless claims and the number of newly laid-off workers filing claims benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, another indication that the job market may be healing as the economy slowly recovers.

The Labor Department said Thursday that new claims for unemployment insurance fell by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 432,000, the lowest since July 2008. That was much better than the rise to 460,000 that Wall Street economists expected.

Markets Rally Higher In Final Minutes

December 30th, 2009

Most stocks spent most of the trading day around the neutral or zero level on light trading before the New Year. The upbeat economic data was offset by the U.S. dollar’s rise against the Japanese yen, as well as an unexpected drop in distillate inventories. More specifically, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said escalating demand among refiners and a cold front along the East Coast weighed on oil stockpiles last week, sending the front-month crude contract to a seven-week high.

Intra-day volatility send things lower but as the major market indexes clawed their way into the black in the final minutes of trading we saw minimal gains. Crazy for a day that encompassed all of 50 points up and down.

Buy Gold Before It’s Too Late

December 28th, 2009

After exiting the GLD long trade with members at the TOP of the market POST HERE - we now are looking into buying some gold before the next rally higher. Since reaching unseen territory at the beginning of this month, GLD has corrected sharply. Nevertheless, the long-term weekly chart shows GLD coming into major support of an uptrend line that began with the lows of November 2008. This is shown below in the chart and seems like a great area to start buying again – but you will have to become a member to know WHEN and HOW MUCH Gold we will buy!

VIX At Bearish Lows Again

December 28th, 2009

VIX index chart is at a huge bearish low right now. Historically speaking, markets will tend to typically correct when investors have the least amount of fear – i.e. a reading below the 20 level indicates a high level of complacency. In the past the VIX has been a reliable indicator for keeping the degree of a market’s trend in perspective. The recent break lower still gives us sufficient reason to be very careful on the long side of the market and the idea that the rally is REALLY getting over extended.

SPX Intra-Day Support And Resistance Levels

December 21st, 2009

These past couple of weeks have been absolutely boring – and the trading range very tight. It’s always best in these situations to just WAIT as much as it hurts to not trade. We NEED to get the true market direction before we trade and try to predict where it could go. So for now let’s watch for the following resistance and support levels on the S&P 500. NOTE: The markets will be CLOSED Friday so it’s a short week.

Dollar Index Rally Coming Soon?

December 21st, 2009

The US Dollar rally has made a huge move higher since the end of November – gaining of about 5%. What is interesting is that it has broken a major trendline which is history repeats itself could be the beginning of something big. As shown below, the recent action in the Dollar looks a lot like the start of the rally that occurred in the second half of 2008. Notice that after the breakout last time from a multi-year downtrend the currency went on to gain 25% over the next 7 months…

Yesterday’s Trading Target Was Dead On!

December 18th, 2009

I can’t help but point out how DEAD ON our trading target was yesterday. See the post here. Now that we have hit that area (in BLUE), we should be headed back up to somewhere around 1,107 on the S&P 500 – where the other GREEN area is on the chart. For members, yesterday saw some great gains on our shorts that have been slow and steady lower over the past couple of weeks. There’s no point in over trading this market right now – so we just have to be calm and patient in our decisions as always. A new trading video will be coming out tonight so check back!

Unemployment Will Be The Big News Today

December 17th, 2009

The calendar is short for today, with no economic news scheduled either for tomorrow or Monday. We are rapidly entering the year-end doldrums, ahead of earnings season in January. Jobless Claims is the big report of the day, due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Expectations call for initial claims to fall from last week to 465,000 and below the four-week moving average at 473,750. Continuing claims are also expected to show a drop, to 5.15 million. For now, here is the picture on the S&P 500. Didn’t I say in a post here that we would fail to breakout?

S&P 500 Trading Ranges With S/R

December 15th, 2009

IWM ETF Trading Breakout?

December 15th, 2009

The IWM ETF which is based on the small-cap Russell 2000 Index had been lagging the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow for months now. The Russell 2000 closed fractionally lower last week, but held in a tight range, just above convergence of its 20 and 50-day moving averages. The index is now poised to break out above the high of its recent consolidation, which would enable the index to quickly catch up to the rest of the major indices:

Fed Interest Rate Meeting Starts

December 15th, 2009

Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates starts today. They are expected to leave interest rates at a record low this week. The big question is whether Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues will hint about when they will reverse course and start boosting rates – which they will have to do inevitably.

Plans for reeling in the unprecedented amount of money the Fed has plowed into the economy to bolster the recovery are likely to dominate its discussions Tuesday and Wednesday. The Fed is expected to announce its policy decisions on Wednesday afternoon.

Mergers And TARP Loan Repayments

December 14th, 2009

Big news morning around here in case you haven’t heard! Topping the news are two big stories (at least we think are the biggest stories). Exxon Mobil will buy XTO Energy today and was announced early this morning. XOM will acquire XTO Energy in an all-stock transaction valued at $31 billion. Exxon has moved quickly to pick up valuable natural gas fields and now it is snapping up XTO, which claims about 45 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

The other is that CITI announced today it will pay back US TARP funds. Citigroup struck a deal with regulators to pay back more than $20 billion of government bailout funds, allowing the bank to exit the TARP program in 2010. The deal appears to permit Citi to shed the executive pay restrictions that came with the taxpayer assistance that has kept it in business.

Anyhow, the futures are on the move higher. Here are the updated levels for today on the S&P 500.

GLD Gold ETF Trade – Profit Analysis

December 8th, 2009

More Volatility Before A Clear Trend

December 8th, 2009

NOTE: A members only video will be going out late tonight so keep an eye out!

Stock futures traded in a the same range earlier this morning as FedEx lifted its earnings guidance on improving activity, an indication of the economic recovery. Additionally, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that headwinds remain for the U.S. economy as he declined to budge from his long-standing view that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time – but then again when has he ever been right or even close to predicting the economy? Lehman? AIG? Unemployment? Come on people.

As per the charts – which we obviously care about even more – the S&P is still locked in this tight range which means more volatility for now. The best thing to do would be to wait for a break out of here before making a firm decision on direction.

Protected: Member’s Only Day Trading Video

December 8th, 2009

S&P 500 Chart Analysis – Breakout Central

December 4th, 2009

Breakout Failure Number 3

December 4th, 2009

We just witnessed the 3 straight day of FAILED BREAKOUTS! Stocks held moderate gains, but retreated from session highs at midday with the prospect that the Federal Reserve might have to raise interest rates after data showed the economy shed far fewer jobs than expected last month. Amazing that it happened 3 times at the exact same level!!! Watch out below!!!!

Jobs Report Is Clearly The Key Today

December 4th, 2009

Well if yesterday was any indication of things to come, today’s jobs number might not be as great as we all hope. The consensus forecast is a loss of 130,000 jobs, with a very wide range of projected values from a loss of 160,000 to a loss of 75,000. Getting a surprise out of the number therefore may be difficult unless either end of the extremes is broken. A smaller negative number would be bullish while a larger one would be bearish.

Still, all we can do is use our intra-day chart of the S&P for support and resistance targets.

WE WARNED YOU!!!!!!!

December 3rd, 2009

We warned you! It utterly amazes me how so many people will email me after every post where I say my thoughts explaining how this and that indicator is bullish – waste of my time. Here is the post we did RIGHT AFTER the second failed breakout: http://thebullzandbearz.com/2009/12/double-fake-out-and-top-set-in/ Again technical analysis wins the day!

Double Fake Out And Top Set In?

December 3rd, 2009

Per the daily chart of the S&P we might have just seen ANOTHER great failure by the bulls on the breakout higher. Notice the two BLUE areas below. Might be in for some selling towards the end of the day.