Day Trading – The Bullz And Bearz
Profitable Trading In Any Market – Stocks Options FOREX
Still Need To Break Support Here
August 31st, 2009
Remember last week when we rallied from the 1,017 level? Well, we are sitting right at the same level again today and really need to break this level first to have any chance at getting down to the 995 level in BLUE – simple as that. While I’m not sure if it will come today or later on this week, it just needs to happen sooner than later. Still, members and I are enjoying some GREAT profits across the board on our shorts! Most are down over 4% today alone and looking great!
Indexes Moving Lower On China’s Overnight Fall
August 31st, 2009
Levels remain as they were Friday morning, where they have been now for several sessions. Even at the lows of the futures so far this morning, index levels appear to be above support and trapped in the existing range.
As we have seen several times now, when index levels hit resistance but fail to break higher, we quickly move down to support. When it does not break lower, we snap back up toward resistance. This range will end at some point but as of this writing, it is advantage bears.
We have also seen the advantage ping-pong back and forth without either camp able to push for a break. The key today is how we close. A close well below support would shift advantage to the bearish side, while a close back inside the range leaves us right back here again tomorrow morning.
Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
First support is at 1619.49. First resistance is now at 1648.77
For the Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ), first support is at $39.88. First resistance is at $40.60.
S&P 500 (SPX)
First support is now at 1010.48. First resistance is at 1044.31.
For the Standard & Poor’s Depository Receipts (SPY), first support is at $101.20. First resistance is at $105.53.
Russell 2000 (RUT)
First support is now at 572.40. First resistance is now at 595.91.
For the iShares Trust Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM), first support is at $57.42. First resistance is at $59.72.
Courtesy of TradeMonster.
Amazing Technical Analysis Set-Ups To Trade
August 28th, 2009
Friday oh Friday…wild and wonderful I guess. These last few days really have been all about early morning thrusts in one direction and then a slow move in the other throughout the day. The /ES mini chart look like a heart monitor and is either making you tons of money or crushing your account (at least for those futures traders out there). As for members and I, we had a good week…not as great as it started, but profitable nevertheless. That’s what counts anyways right. Besides, I wouldn’t want to be on the long end of most things these days, it’s just too risky and not worth the minor run up that could be left.
Because I feel like I have a “sixth sense” for chart patterns and people are always asking me for ideas…here are some things I literally found today scanning charts this afternoon (what else would I do in my spare time right?)
EXC
BG
CAT
Another Failed Rally Attempt?
August 28th, 2009
Hopefully everyone saw the video from last night and this morning. If you saw the way the futures were acting this morning right before the open you would have believe you were watching the NEW bull market all over again….PANIC BUYING! But, seems now like that was just another bear trap that GS set for all your bull suckers out there. The faster things raise the harder they fall…just saying!
Waste Of A Trading Day Once Again
August 27th, 2009
You know these reversals, whether bullish or bearish are a complete and utter waste of time these days. Not to mention that the markets are getting less and less volatile which is making it harder to turn some capital, but it’s gone FLAT. Thankfully I have option positions all over the place to counter balance this but it still is frustrating for my trading portfolio. What was a big fat profit this morning turned into little more than a couple hundred bucks by the end of the day. That’s it for now, but I’ll have a NEW trading video up later tonight so check back soon.
Markets Sell Off On GDP And Jobs To Support Target
August 27th, 2009
Afternoon. Seems those economic numbers that came in were not good enough for Mr. Market and he decided to take a day off from all the up hill marching. Great for us, because the shorts that members and I have are doing amazing today – couldn’t be happier. Per the chart I posted this morning, I had an intra-day support target of 1,017 on the S&P. Notice below in BLUE that the markets fell to that point TWICE and rallied off of it. Dead on targets using technical analysis – just AMAZING!
Trading The GDP & Jobless Claims Numbers
August 27th, 2009
It’s right after the two big economic reports came out this morning. In general, GDP was down 1% which was about expected and jobless claims fell 10,000 which again is pretty much what was expected. So, as of THIS moment, the futures are heading lower after the numbers since great news is never good news for the markets. Really the way to trade this day would be to sell any sharp rally at the open again.
I think people are slowly starting to get frustrated considering that all the economic reports are not blowing us away with bullish expectations. Thus, this could really start kicking in a strong topping pattern over the next month. Here is a chart of the S&P below for intra-day support and resistance.
QQQQ Trendline Break And Retracement
August 26th, 2009
Another failed bullish attempt today as the indexes were basically flat at the close. Shorts did great for members and I today while our few longs were mixed; some higher some lower. Overall though we were seeing some GREEN on the screens.
Now, looking at the chart of the QQQQ’s below you can see a very clean trendline break and retracement. Honestly, these are golden opportunities to learn from because they are happening RIGHT NOW in the markets. Notice that we broke this two week trendline yesterday after the failed rally. Then today, we opened up here and made a very successful retrace of the breakout (highlighted in BLUE around 40.60). If you were using technically analysis you would have clearly seen that this mornings rally was nothing more than a retracement of the breakout – and really just another opportunity to go short! Amazing how this stuff works time and again people!
1,030 Seems To Be The Line In The Sand
August 26th, 2009
After a quick rally this morning, the indexes seem to be pulling back from the 1,030 which I think is going to be major resistance. Not only is it a cross of Fib levels, but also a pivot point level too. Notice on the chart below that it’s hit that level nearly three different times and failed to rally significantly off of it. Now the track seems to be down towards 1,017 as the next intra-day support level. As for our shorts, everything is looking GREEN this morning members! Way to go!
DUG Yourself Out Of A Hole
August 25th, 2009
The indexes are moving higher this afternoon on much better consumer confidence. This goes in lock step with my whole theory right now that after everyone (and their mother) has bought into this rally and the recession being over – then things will turn south fast. When there is nobody left to continue buying, who will keep prices up? Just saying…
DUG is an interesting little chart right now and seems to be making a nice double bottom. If this holds and the dollar starts to rally some then we could see this bounce strongly off of the recent lows.
How To Navigate The Trading Range
August 25th, 2009
Morning all! First, I just wanted to remind everyone about the FREE Option Trading Newsletter. It’s been a huge hit since we put it together a couple months ago now and really what do you have to lose by signing up – it’s FREEEEEE for goodness. If anything you will pick up some great tips and tricks for options trading more profitably.
Hopefully all the members enjoyed last night’s trading video and market insight. In general we have a fairly hedged portfolio right now which is great for what I am expecting in the markets over the next couple of months – i.e. sideways trading. Our longs have been doing great and are showing some fat profits right now – while our shorts are still holding their own.
As for today, we seem to be stuck in another trading range. Honestly things could go either way today – and most likely will test each level once I think. So, just sit back and wait for the clear direction to show it-self to you. There’s no need to get all worked up on any day trades today as the risk/reward will probably not be there. Here’s what we are seeing as support and resistance on the S&P 500.
S&P Rallies 1% Then Sells Off Into The Close
August 24th, 2009
Ha ha bulls. Ironic that I made that whispering sound this morning about a “sell-off.” Things never change folks. Not to say that this will be the top of the market or anything, but the kind of set up we had this morning was classic. Everyone and their mother wanted to buy stock today and then mid-day the SMART MONEY sold everything off and left those people with empty pockets…just classic. When you’ve been around it long enough, you’ll start to smell these days out and not get sucked into the trap – or just follow this blog for clues.
Anyhow, here is an interesting chart of FAZ I wanted to post. Notice how high the volume has been getting recently (BLUE). Somebody out there is picking this ETF up hand over foot and rightfully so considering how high the financials have gotten recently…might not be a bad play if things turn south (shhhh don’t want to scare those newbie bulls out there now). More tonight in the MEMBERS ONLY PORTFOLIO VIDOE!!!
S&P 500 Support And Resistance Targets
August 24th, 2009
First, I wanted to let MEMBERS know that the MEMBERS ONLY PORTFOLIO VIDEO will be going out later tonight!
Seems the week is off to another bullish start. No surprise really following last week’s demolition of the bears. So, while there really is no CLEAR intra-day resistance considering we are breaking new highs daily, I think 1,030 may be the highest we go today. As far as support should we sell off (whispering) then 1,017 which is where we gapped up on Friday. See the chart below for more support and resistance levels. That’s it for now…I’ll be back intra-day to see where we land.
August Option Portfolio Income – 3.14%!!!
August 22nd, 2009
The August portfolio was once again extremely profitable with another month without ANY losses! Although our QQQQ 40 Call gave us a bit of a scare this week, we were still able to close it out early with a profit of 3.30%.
As many of you know, we entered many of these positions during July when the markets were moving sideways. We had anticipated an upward move and therefore sold a lot of Puts below the market which worked beautifully as the markets rallied up. Once again, the power of option writing/selling is clearly evident. To re-cap the month’s income, let’s look at what we made vs. our required investments (in margin).
Here are the positions we had with corresponding PROFIT/INVESTMENT and RETURN:
SPY AUGUST 65 PUT- $17/$650 = 2.61% Return
QQQQ AUGUST 40 CALL- $12/$363 = 3.30% Return*
DIA AUGUST 66 PUT- $20/$621 = 3.22% Return
IWM AUGUST 37 PUT – $14/$372 = 3.76% Return
Once again, we did not have to close out any positions this month at a loss. This just goes to show everyone that by writing options, you are basically forcing the indexes to make dramatic moves in a very short time frame. And since we have positions on BOTH sides of the market (Puts and Calls), you are guaranteed to make money on at least one side of the trade every time – or both sides like we do every month.
Sign Up for the Option Writers HERE!
With regard to TOTAL INCOME and RETURN, the August portfolio produced $63 of total income after investing just $2,006 in margin. That means we saw a total portfolio return of 3.14% this month. Flat out great return once again! As we usually point out continuously, our calculations assume that you enter just 1 (ONE) contract per week – i.e. a total of 4 contracts for the month.
Those members with a higher captial base should be entering multiple contract positions each week. For example, if you are trading a portfolio of $15,000 then you would have generated roughly $471 of income!
Enjoy your profits!
The Bubble Is Here – Don’t Get Caught
August 21st, 2009
First off, what?!?!?! The markets are on a four day rally after Monday’s huge (not really now I guess) sell-off? Whatever is pushing this market higher is getting OVER-CONFIDENT. Reminds me an awful lot of all the past bubbles. People are already out there saying “just buy it…everything is going up!” This kind of nonsense is quickly reversed and very hard at that. Just think, the farthest thing from the markets mind right now is a major reversal. But more than likely that is what we will see into the remainder of 2009.
Per today however, we have broke the broadening wedge pattern I talked about yesterday. Now it’s time for a retracement back down to the BLUE area before going higher (if humanly possible).
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Today's Live Market Quotes & Charts
| NASDAQ | 2784.42 | ||||
| S&P 500 | 1296.07 | ||||
| ^TNX | 1.70 | ||||
| ^XAU | 147.86 | ||||
| ^XOI | 1105.62 | ||||
| OIH | 35.61 | ||||
| FAZ | 28.46 | ||||
| IWM | 75.03 | ||||
| BGZ | 25.09 | ||||
| SDS | 17.45 | ||||
| ERY | 13.18 | ||||
| DOG | 37.53 | ||||
| IWB | 72.07 | ||||
| EDZ | 18.50 | ||||
| DUG | 28.36 |
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