Day Trading – The Bullz And Bearz
Profitable Trading In Any Market – Stocks Options FOREX
Wait For NASDAQ To Rally To 1,780 Before Shorting
July 10th, 2009
Busy bee this morning getting ready for options expiration next week. As usual, the Option Writer’s report will be extremely profitable once again. As I flip through the chats, the NASDAQ continues to catch my eye. And, as not to make this blog all about the S&P intra-day charts, here is a look at the NASDAQ. In my opinion, 1,780 is the BIG line in the sand right now. Not only is it a major area of resistance for the last year (GREEN), but it is also the 61.8% retracement level for the last 5 years (BLUE LINE)! Clearly a very important level to watch! I would say if we rally there today, you can start entering shorts or trade some QQQQ options.
Solar Stocks To Buy At Bargin Prices
July 9th, 2009
Before you all dig too deep into my post headline I am strictly looking at these charts from the technical perspective. As I do everything else I trade, I could care less what the companies does, where it is located, who the managers are, etc. It’s the technicals that matter the most – as they already have everyone’s opinions, outlook, concerns, priced in to the security. So, just because I think these are good buys right now, does not mean that I feel solar power is the next revolution. Usually I wouldn’t have this big of a disclaimer but sometimes people take these sectors WAY too seriously.
But before we dig into the Solar, let’s look at the S&P real quick. Today we rallied right below my target of 890 – once again it’s amazing that I call these levels everyday lately. Once we hit the resistance, we fell back down to support at 880. From here, I think there is a little more upside left coming if we get OKAY earnings news – but really nothing higher than 905 AT ALL.
Onto SOLAR. The first of 3 is JASO, which I mentioned this morning as a good looking LONG. Should have listened as it was up near 8% today alone. I still think it could reach the BLUE region quickly after finding support.
LDK is a little different and a good play on the channel pattern it’s been in for more than 4 months. Volume needs to start picking up in this one before I can be completely comfortable with the support level it’s at now.
And now the best for last – SOL. Notice the very clean breakout from early June accompanied by high volume. This is exactly the type of breakouts you like to see as a technical analyst. Now that the retracement has completed back to the support line (BLUE) we need to see one more BIG white candle day before confirming support. The slight up-tick in volume also helps build confidence in this long.
Didn’t I Say MRK Would Retrace The Breakout
July 9th, 2009
Since things are pretty boring today, here is a chart of MRK which I said would retrace it’s breakout. As you can see from the chart below it came all the way back down to it’s breakout trendline (Blue). Now, this doesn’t mean that you should rush out and buy up MRK. It’s got to hold above this level for at least 1 more day before we get Long. Again, here to help you guys save some money on these types of trades!
Jobless Claims Fall – Market Bounce Expected, Solar Rebound
July 9th, 2009
Looks like the markets got a sliver of good news with jobless claims falling. What is ironic and weird if you actually read the report you will find that jobs are still being lost, just at a slower rate. Additionally, the rate of hiring (which is of course the creation of jobs) is horrible and flat. So, to me at least it all still adds up to a sloppy picture for the economy.
A small rally is to be expected today following some horrible days early this week in the markets (well, not horrible for SHORTS though). Members and I have moved down stops most of our short positions to lock in some MAJOR profits and protect the upside. As far as the S&P is concerned, as you will see on the chart below, 890 will be the big wall to get through. Keep an eye on these levels as they will undoubtedly help your trading each day.
On the Solar front (and thanks to Peter S. for pointing them out) there are a couple that are really good looking long prospects. JASO in particular has a good channel pattern ready for a breakout…
ICE-y Slope For This Stock – S&P 500 Breaks 880
July 8th, 2009
Wow! Talk about a HUGE sell-off in ICE. I mentioned it this morning but this blood-bath is likely going to continue. Here is the RED chart.
For the S&P 500, we FINALLY Broke the 880 level! Yeah Bearz! Let’ hope we keep that line in the sand through the close today!
Earnings Season Kicks Off Today – ICE Breaks Trendline
July 8th, 2009
Mixed before earnings – that’s going to be the story today. Alcoa (AA) kicks off the season after the close as the first DOW company to report. Usually they either miss big or hit it big – one or the other. Of course we should never be judging the entire earnings season on this one company but some people do and that’s their decision. Here’s the chart of AA, looking like a good long if anything – though it’s not THAT convincing.
Either way, the 880 level is incredibly key until we break or move away from it. Watch these levels in GREEN today people!
As I looked over some of the worst performers yesterday during the sell off, ICE stood out like a sore thumb. Not only did it retrace all of the breakout from major resistance at 122 just a couple days ago, but it just broke a MAJOR trendline on very big volume. Clearly, the 11% drop yesterday is not the end for this stocks. I think the GREEN area around $80 is a sure thing over the next month.
S&P 500 On The Brink Of Major Support Break
July 7th, 2009
My B-Day wish only came half true today. I had wished for a BREAK of 880 today, but instead we ONLY got a 2% sell off down to 881. Wait! What am I talking about…that’s great for our SHORTS!!! Talk about a great b-day full of profits. In total, the family portfolio I manage was up over $8,500 today along – not bad at all right?
As you can see on the chart, right after I posted about the support around 890, the markets broke sharp and hard. Closing virtually at the lows and once again RIGHT AT MY SUPPORT TARGET. Honestly, I don’t understand why more people don’t use these levels day in and day out…THEY WORK PEOPLE! Still, we really – and I mean REALLY need to break this 880 soon – like THIS WEEK. Off for more cake and ice cream…
Support Holding For Now – HD Play
July 7th, 2009
Through lunch it looks like support is holding firm on the S&P. Notice the same bounce area in blue from yesterday as well. Maybe it’s getting weaker…maybe it’s getting stronger, but something needs to happen soon!
If your bullish on the economy and housing in general, HD might be a good pick up here.
My Birthday Wish – S&P 500 Breaks Below 880
July 7th, 2009
That’s right folks – it’s my big BIRTHDAY! Thanks for all those who have send emails, messages, e-cards, real cards, etc! Really appreciate it! You would think that with such a lucky b-day (being 7/7) that I should go out an gamble or buy a lottery ticket or something. Nope, not my style – it’s rather place my wish on the S&P 500 breaking below 880. Might happen, might not, but that’s my hope!
Still, the futures this morning suggested a flat to lower open this morning. All in all I think everyone is waiting for earnings to start coming out – which starts tomorrow with Alcoa – before making any big bets. After tapping most of my outside sources, I get the overwhelming feeling that we are headed to between 820 and 850 on the S&P. After that we are more than likely going to start rallying again – which we plan to jump on in full when we get there. For now though, our SHORTS are doing great and continue to make us money as the markets fall. Here are the levels to watch today.
ANR is on my LONG radar after the hammer candlestick right at support yesterday. The key will be holding this level with some good volume.
Huge Break Below Support And Now Down 5%+
July 6th, 2009
Great day thus far in the markets for us Bearz. Things are moving great in all areas once again. What’s best is that there are significant support breaks which means much lower levels over the next week or so. Take a look at just ONE of our short trades – MIDD which is down more than 5% today and broke a very significant support level in GREEN. We’ve made over 17% on this short since we entered it a little over two weeks ago. Way to go members!
Stocks, Oil, Gold Fall On Poor Earnings And Outlook
July 6th, 2009
Welcome back everyone from the long weekend. Looks like we are headed for some busy trading today as people get back into the swing of things after the holiday. Overnight most overseas markets fell hard on earnings news and economic outlook. As such, pre-market futures were down more than 1% before the open this morning. On the daily chart we need will most likely break the 890 level and head for 880 (the BLUE circle). Once we reach that, it’s decision time! I have been talking ad nauseam about a break of 880 which would be disastrous for the bulls and this rally. Of course, members and I are holding a portfolio of SHORTS in inverse ETF’s so we are going to have a GREAT day once again! Back later with more commentary.
That Didn’t Take Long – Support Break Complete
July 2nd, 2009
Well that didn’t take long to get to my 905 level after the open. Now that we are holding below that level I’m expecting a small retracement back up to near 905 before resuming the fall to 890. As far as the portfolio (made of nearly all SHORTS) we have been having a great day as you can guess with this type of sell-off! Way to go members!
Unemployment Raises To 9.5% – Futures Tank
July 2nd, 2009
Wow…what a kick in the back for the bulls huh? Can’t be too surprised right because I’ve been talking about employment like a broken record forever now. You CANNOT have economic growth in our economy if people continue to lose their jobs – period, end of story! No matter how much money the GOV’T puts into the system, out of work is out of work for the rest of us. After the news, the futures took a great NOSE-DIVE as show below in the /ES chart. Amazing how in the blink of an eye things change so rapidly. Look at the spike in volume!
Should be a great day for us bearz who are positioned to profit from this fall. Not going to count my chickens before they hatch but some of our SHORTS are already down more than 5% today! A big close down would be wonderful heading into the long holiday weekend.
Merck Breakout – S&P Hitting Resistance Again
July 1st, 2009
Once again the morning thrust set then S&P right into my resistance target around 927. From here we have traded sideways through lunchtime. I’m sure the end of the day will bring some new excitement.
Take a look at MRK below. The heavy volume isn’t there, but the breakout from the trendline is very clean. Possible LONG…I’ll let you decide.
3rd Quarter Kicks Off – Manufacturing Data Out
July 1st, 2009
First, I STRONGLY suggest everyone watch last night’s Trading Video as I covered Gold, Oil, the Markets, etc. Really important.
3rd Quarter of business officially kicks off today. I always like seeing how things go during the 3rd quarter as I usually is a good indicator for the 4th quarter. I predict most of the news this quarter will surround Oil and Housing as the summer months tend to have an impact in both areas. This morning manufacturing shrank which obviously is not a good sign for the economy. Still, futures were higher into the start.
As usually, I have posted my targets intra-day for the S&P. You know you can use these to trade the SPY ETF right? I’m hand feeding you ideas here each day. Anyways – the key again will be to stay below 927 and start heading for 905. Seasonally the days before the 4th of July are usually more bullish than bearish – but I’m definitely not expecting a big rally AT ALL.
Here a chart to think about – it’s the VIX and it looks like a convincing long trade. In fact you can actually trade it using the VXX ETF. Pretty cool huh?
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| NASDAQ | 2847.21 | ||||
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