JPMorgan Chase Earnings Beat Estimates – Oil Drops

July 16th, 2009

To follow on the whole mantra of “big bank earnings” this morning we had another strong beat of estimates. While of course this is encouraging, let me tell you why they beat so big. You see when analysts at these big banks last year saw everything collapsing, they cut their estimates dramatically – sometimes in half or more. Now that we have seen a pick up in the markets, their same estimates are looking like a huge beat, when in reality their estimates were so low that really anyone could beat it. You have to understand here people that when they have these huge “earnings beat our estimates” times like these, they attract hundreds of customers with the headlines. Now, I’m not saying that every single analyst is doing this by all means, but many more than you think. So take this with a grain of salt and move on.

 

This morning the futures were fairly flat and honestly should be considering the two day monstrosity we had of a rally – everyone needs time to catch up. On the S&P today if we rally I really don’t think that we could get past 945 (BLUE). That type of three day move would be unrealistic and worthy of me buying index puts on the market. Considering how fast we rallied yesterday, if we drop over the next two days, then it won’t take us any time at all to get the the next support level at 910 so be on your toes.

 

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FST is an old friend of ours. Members and I have made money on both sides with this stock in the past. Right now it’s shaping up to be a good looking long candidate to the BLUE area. We need to see a slight pull back here today before getting in members.

 

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