Stock Market Today – This Week Before The 4th

June 29th, 2009

Make no mistake, the 4th of July is my favorite holiday. Call me crazy but there is something about the whole spirit of American Independence that gives me the chills. Our family has big plans as usual and I hope everyone else out there does too!

 

Now, given that we are knee deep into the summer trading months and the 4th is right around the corner, I’m not really expecting huge moves out of the indexes. Having said that I do think that we are still in the mini-retracement mode following last week’s big decline early on. It’s completely normal and natural for markets to come back and re-test previous areas of support/resistance. Not to mention that it allows those people who missed the first slide to jump back in and make some money!

 

All in all, the S&P needs desperately to stay below 927. Not that a break above it would send us into 1,000 – as there is clearly a lot of over-head supply to get through – but it’s a very strong resistance level right now that needs to hold firm. I think if we hold this level through mid-week at the latest then it’s down we go! See chart below for levels.

 

spx26

 

In the FOREX markets, I’ve said time and again that we need to watch a breakout of the EUR/USD. This is a very important chart and the breakout can happen anywhere! Watch the blue areas for early signs.

 

eur1

 

FOSL is a good looking short trade here. Notice the exact retracement of the broken support line in October of 2008. Amazing how accurate technical analysis can be huh?

 

fosl

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