Day Trading – The Bullz And Bearz

Oil Rallies Again – Markets Likely To Trade Flat

June 11th, 2009

I know I know! Another flat day in the works here. Don’t we all miss those great days from October and November of 2008. Seems like only yesterday…oh well.

The futures turned slightly negative before the open. Again, today the key level will be 925 on the S&P. Point blank, the bearz need to break that level to start the engines. Let’s see how this boring day ends up…who knows…maybe we will actually get some meaningful movement.

Chart Patterns – A Flag Breakout Is Coming Soon

June 10th, 2009

So Much For The Next Big Rally – Another Run At 925

June 10th, 2009

The markets litterally opened higher and then have slowly traded down all day. Again, didn’t I say this was going to happen this morning. Just a big FAKE OUT! Now we are once again faced with another test of the 925 level. I think we are going to break it this time considering that we keep hitting it and not move off it in any meaningful way. Here’s the chart for you to watch out.

Markets Ready To Open Higher Again – Is This A Fake Out?

June 10th, 2009

Morning all! Markets are set to open higher this morning. There is a lot of news surrounding auto-maker bankruptcies etc. Also the US trade deficit widened in April on falling exports. All in all, this has allowed the futures to crawl back from their early morning highs around 955 for the /ES. I think that if we continue to rally today – IF - then the 965 level is going to be key. Really any higher than that and we break the underneath of the major trend-line we are currently sitting at. Personally, I think this is just one big fake out. See the chart below.

AAPL has been on a rampage these past couple of months. After a fairly strong breakout above the Support/Resistance level it’s getting due for a turn around very soon. This kind of mimics what’s happening in the NASDAQ as well.

Candlestick Patterns – Understanding Spinning Tops

June 9th, 2009

Crude Oil Has Reaching It’s Appex

June 9th, 2009

Morning all. Equities are trading flat once again this morning. But, crude oil is looking more and more like a great shorting opportunity here. Check out this chart where it’s reached two very important long term resistance levels. I have that “funny feeling” about this again…

Don’t Say I Didn’t Warn You – I Can’t Save Them All!

June 8th, 2009

Okay, honestly I have to say that some people who have been emailing me today are prime examples of why I started this blog. I’ve had MORE than 20 people email me following my POST earlier this afternoon warning of a rally – THAT HAPPENED THIS AFTERNOON – from the 925 level on the S&P. They all said basically the same thing…”Kirk, there’s no way we are rallying again right from 925.” Well, we did guys. Here’s the chart to prove it.

Again, this is a prime example of why there are so many people out there – NOT ALL of you of course – who have NO clue how the markets work and move. NONE. Yet, they feel the need to email guys like me – and others – about all their knowledge. Hence, I started this blog to help make day/swing trading more understandable and practical for the average person. When you get down to the brass tacks of it, trading is not that hard at all…but it requires a whole lot of PATIENCE and EMOTIONAL control over yourself. This again is where people get into trouble…

DOW Selling Off Again – We Need To Break 925 On The S&P

June 8th, 2009

Afternoon all! This day is just flying by right now as I have a lot of extra work piling up around me. Checking the intra-day of the markets, you can see on the chart below that the 925 level (in green) where we rallied from last week is once again going to be very important and hard to break through. But, if we are going to get into major correction mode, then this level has to get taken out. Simple as that.

US Stocks To Open Lower – Valuation Worries Rise

June 8th, 2009

Morning all! Seems like this week may actually get off to a good start for us bearz. Seems like the past couple Monday’s have all been huge rallies – maybe today will buck the trend? The futures were lower this morning almost 1% before the open. Members and I closed out some Long positions in the Oil and Energy sector for a healthy profit. I think commodities in general are over-bought big time. Look at the CRX below and you will see what I mean.

Later on today may be the time where I start buying PUT Options on the indexes. As many of you have figured out, why I publicly say I’m buying options, it’s usually a serious move for my porftolio – i.e. something to watch out for. But, no promises. Let’s see how the day treats us first. Happy Trading!

Futures Trading – Ending The Week With Huge ES-Mini Swings

June 5th, 2009

Interesting week for the markets with all the news and economic data. As we get into mid June and the summer months in general I’m expecting the markets to slowly start to sell off down to the 850  level on the S&P. I think the bullz have made their point, but we have priced too much in and it’s time to start making some serious money shorting. Check out the great video below that recaps the week including Oil and Gold.

A reminder that TOMORROW is the last chance to SIGN UP for the 2 WEEK FREE TRAIL to the Option Writers Report. We have already reached our June Monthly Income Goals!

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VIX And Energy Showing Early Signs That The End Is Near

June 5th, 2009

Seems like all the hype this morning was fairly short lived. The markets will likely close flat to down though the media would have had you believe this morning that the NEW bull market move was about to begin. Just goes to show you that you can never listen to them for your trades as they are always a step behind.

As for Oil, the brief rally to $70 has backed off in a fairly big way. Here is a chart of the XLE which is sporting an amazing shooting star pattern right now – in blue.

The VIX is also reaching complacency levels. If this was a stock, I would be going long – i.e. betting on more fear coming back into the market. I guess all you can say is that the signs are all around us that the eventual end of this bull market move is coming very soon now.

Protected: Member’s Only Portfolio Strategy Trading Video

June 5th, 2009

Job Losses In US Slow, Futures Rise On Economic Outlook

June 5th, 2009

Morning all! As we all know, the jobless claims came in much less than expected – still a decline of 345,000 in May. But, what I think is the biggest number is the increase in the unemployment rate to nearly 9.4% and the real unemployment rate at 16.4%! The real unemployment rate accounts for people who have a job but for example have been laid off at a top company and have settled for a part-time or lower paying job. So, even though they technically have a job, it’s making much less money for their family than their previous job. All in all, the news is shooting stocks higher. Here are the S&P intra-day targets. Again, watch the 958 level closely. Should prove to be an interesting day in deed!

And On The 4th Day, The Volume Spiked

June 4th, 2009

When Volume Surges This High, The BIG BOYS Are Buying

June 4th, 2009

Take it from me, volume that is creeping more than 10X it’s average float means that “someone” is buying this hand over foot. Member’s and I are already long this stock and I suggest you all find out and jump in too! After opening down 8% this morning, buyers rushed in and moved this security up 10% from the lows just today! Gotta be a member to see this trade though…it’s only fair.

I’ll be back here TONIGHT with a New Trading Video!

Unemployment Claims Decrease – ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged

June 4th, 2009

Lot’s of news to get through this morning. The two big headlines being that the ECB keep it’s interest rates unchanged and the US initial jobless claims decreased signaling that the RATE at which people are losing their jobs is declining. Naturally, the futures spiked before this open this morning. As I said in YESTERDAY’S POST, if the bullz are going to continue higher, they need to put something together right now while the S&P is above 925. If for some reason we start to break down today, then 925 is again going to be the key level to watch.

As a reminder, the OPTION WRITERS report will be going out again soon. In just it’s first month we have made a very consistent 5% return using SAFE options strategies. In addition, we have already locked in profits on next month options! The 2 Week Free Trial deadline is in just 2 days. Try something new folks!

I had previously mentioned earlier this week that going Long the USD/CAD was a great trade at Fib support. From the chart below you can clearly see the big jump it had following the dollar weakness.

For those of you who want a really cool FOREX ETF, I would recommend buying the EUO right now. It’s an inverse/ultrashort EURO considering how far the EUR/USD has gone up recently.

Great Day For Shorts – Again, Trading Isn’t Rocket Science

June 3rd, 2009

Remember last night I had mentioned that I had those old fashioned “funny feelings” that something was going to turn in the markets. Here’s the POST. Well, surely enough we have started to slowly unwind here. More and more I hear and people talking about getting out of the markets in a BIG way. Not just scaling back, but all an all out retreat for the rest of 2009. Honestly, I could see things going this way if unemployment continues to rise. The trader in me would be extatic we did see new lows given the opportunity to short anything with a TICKER. But, of course the human in me never likes to see fellow American’s out on the street – never.

Moving on. The market’s opened up hard to the downside this morning and into the afternoon. But, if you had taken a look at the intra-day charts you would have CLEARLY seen huge support around 925 on the S&P. I had even made a POST during the afternoon to alert everyone about the possible mid-day reversal. Really, the bullz need to hold this level or else it’s down and away we go.

LLN is one LONG idea that is looking better and better. It broke out of the downward trend line in April and has now retraced back to a strong support level right about $30. If you go long here, just place your stops under the hortizontal support level.

Markets Falling Hard On Job Concerns – Support At 925

June 3rd, 2009

No big surprise that the markets are falling hard this afternoon on job concerns. I said it this morning before the market opened about that if people don’t have a job then they cannot possibly spend money or even save money – just won’t happen, period. But, for us traders that are tilted bearish, it’s been a great day thus far. As of now the S&P is down 2% and starting to slowly erase gains from Monday’s big hype. The chart below is shows that we are sitting at some very strong support at 925. If the bullz hold this and rally higher, now would be the time to start. If not, look out below.

Half A Million Workers Lost Jobs In May – Futures Decline

June 3rd, 2009

Good morning all! Seems like the media is finally catching up with the idea that the markets cannot continue higher at this pace forever. I know it’s hard to believe for some of you out there but it’s the truth – markets move up AND down, never in just one direction though some of you still think this. The real catalyst this morning was the news from the ADP that some 500,000+ workers lost their jobs last month. Again, I point to the fact that if people don’t have a job they don’t have money to spend or save – period. All of the “money” coming into the market has been more government money than anything else. I mean can you honestly say that 7 out of 10 people have “extra” money these days to invest – please.

Members and I still remain very neutral with our portfolio – though it’s more tilted to the bearish side than anything else. The longs we had from last week have done great – remember the 25% return on CAL – and we will keep these to counteract any upside in the future. In addition, plays in the energy sector are very interesting at this point. Here is DUG which is looking like a great long trade right now.

Here are the updated S&P levels for you all to use today. Remember that my 942 level was practically dead on this week as a huge resistance level for the markets. Let’s see if we can’t get down to the support levels in the coming weeks.

My Funny Feeling Indicator Is Starting Go Off

June 2nd, 2009

Seems like these days there is a big movement type day followed by another flat day. So, on the heals of Monday’s big thrust higher and today’s absolutely boring action, will tomorrow keep us all on our toes with another big move in some direction. Personally, I am getting the feeling from different places that something big is coming down the line. Whether is good or bad – it’s big news that we have not priced into the market yet. I’m not a fortune teller by any means, but I do have my sources.

In addition, the VIX continues to fall which shows complacency for the current trend as well as sentiment indicators reaching extreme levels that in the past have signaled major tops. Given all the factors that professionals consider in the trading environment, I felt comfortable taking profits on one of our Long trades – CAL. From the chart below in Green you can see that it’s up over 25% during the 3 days that we were in the trade. No bad for 3 days of work huh?!

On the FOREX front which has been extremely active, the USD/CAD still looks like an amazing Long trade. Of course, we should all wait for a bullish candle pattern first before entering, but the 1.07 level where the Fib support is located is VERY strong. Could have huge profit potential if the dollar gains some strength.

Finally, at the risk of being a broken record once again, here is another AMAZING Short idea – DTG. I’m seeing these more and more often as I browse through my charts which makes me wonder what’s coming next in the markets. There was a reason this stock fell from $60 to less than $1.00. You cannot honestly tell me with a straight face that reason is now gone and this is going to continue higher…i.e. SHORT THIS!!!