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Retracement Levels Work Once Again
June 30th, 2009
Well, once again my retracement support and resistance levels worked beautifully. After hitting major resistance at 927 as I had talked about yesterday, the S&P 500 is now moving very quickly away and heading towards 905. Honestly, each day the accuracy and profitability of technical analysis amazes me!
2nd Quarter Ending – NASDAQ Rally Coming To An End
June 30th, 2009
We’ve made it through another quarter in the market. To be honest, I can’t wait for this quarter to be over as it’s been nothing but boring. From start to finish stocks have traded completely sideways. Let’s hope that the summer month kick off some changes in the market. I decided to change things up today and put up a chart of the NASDAQ which I think is VERY close to turning sharply downward. Notice the huge open space until we reach 1,810 to the down side. But if we rally today, look for the NASDAQ to hit resistance 1,855. Should be an incredibly interesting day as people shift and transfer money around!
Resistance Targe Hit – Now What?
June 29th, 2009
As I mentioned this morning before the open, 927 would be the first line of resistance for the bullz. As you can see from the chart below, that’s exactly where they stopped the rally after the open. Amazing how accurate technical analysis can be if you know how to use it properly. Anything really above this level is going to be an all out battle for position – which translates into more sideways trading.
Stock Market Today – This Week Before The 4th
June 29th, 2009
Make no mistake, the 4th of July is my favorite holiday. Call me crazy but there is something about the whole spirit of American Independence that gives me the chills. Our family has big plans as usual and I hope everyone else out there does too!
Now, given that we are knee deep into the summer trading months and the 4th is right around the corner, I’m not really expecting huge moves out of the indexes. Having said that I do think that we are still in the mini-retracement mode following last week’s big decline early on. It’s completely normal and natural for markets to come back and re-test previous areas of support/resistance. Not to mention that it allows those people who missed the first slide to jump back in and make some money!
All in all, the S&P needs desperately to stay below 927. Not that a break above it would send us into 1,000 – as there is clearly a lot of over-head supply to get through – but it’s a very strong resistance level right now that needs to hold firm. I think if we hold this level through mid-week at the latest then it’s down we go! See chart below for levels.
In the FOREX markets, I’ve said time and again that we need to watch a breakout of the EUR/USD. This is a very important chart and the breakout can happen anywhere! Watch the blue areas for early signs.
FOSL is a good looking short trade here. Notice the exact retracement of the broken support line in October of 2008. Amazing how accurate technical analysis can be huh?
Head And Shoulders Top Forming
June 26th, 2009
Well, that was completely a wasteful day in the markets. I mean we did nothing as far as any significant movements. I’m sure you all felt the same way by mid-day and decided to go out and enjoy the wonderful day – at least that’s what I did with my family.
Regarding the post headline. I really think that the market is grinding out a intermediate head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. Think about it for a second. Nearly two months ago were were trading sideways right at the same levels we are at now (left shoulder). Last month we jumped higher but again moved sideways (head). Now we surged lower last week and are again trading sideways (possible right shoulder). Get the picture!? So, if we break the critical 880 level I have been talking about for weeks now, I think the pain is going to increase substantially. As least that’s my thoughts on where this madness is heading this summer.
Switching to Options – I have to say that the popularity of the Option Writer’s report has grown substantially – which is great. I find it very interesting that from beginning traders to seasoned professional, they still have never heard of this amazing strategy. Not to mention that regardless of what market you trade in, you should be using this strategy to help generate monthly income for your portfolio. Honestly, once you try it ONCE you may very well never go back to the old way of trading options – TAKE MY WORD FOR IT! The new report will be going out last Sunday night. We will be starting to add to our August Income portfolio so this is a great time to get in at the beginning and make some great money. Besides, what’s better than trying it FREE for 2 WEEKS!
S&P Support and/or Resistance – No Man’s Land
June 26th, 2009
The more I look at the chart of the S&P and DOW the more I realize we are still in no man’s land right now. Either the markets will move up slightly today and reach some VERY solid resistance, or they will move down to support which is close by. Easier said than done right – I mean it’s easy to say that we are going either up or down right? So here’s my thoughts for today —> I say we rally after the open and hit somewhere around 925, then the longs start selling off positions into the weekend. Here are the major levels to watch on the S&P.
SDS – the ultra short S&P 500 looks like a good play from here for the next couple of weeks. Good volume yesterday too. May want to wait for the mid-day rally to peak before jumping into this one.
PRGO – I’m sure you can guess what I’m thinking for this gem, but I’ll try and let you decide for once. Look at this resistance!
Poor News But Markets Rally? Fakeout Coming?
June 25th, 2009
Huh? Futures opened higher before the bell, followed by a mini-crash at the open, and now we are trading higher by 1%+ on the day? Doesn’t make any sense really at all – check out the chart below with today’s action in blue. Honestly, I think this is just another fake-out and manipulation by some of the bigger banks (GS traders out there). Don’t get frustrated out there beginners – this is what they big boys are trying to do to you all. Staying below 920 is incredibly key today.
Jobless Claims Rise, Sending Futures Spiraling Down
June 25th, 2009
When the futures markets kicked off the morning they were rallying hard. The /ES was up to 908 literally in the blink of an eye. Now however, following some very weak jobs numbers, they have fallen out of bed – the /ES is now trading at 892! Talk about a huge reversal in sentiment within a couple of hours.
As I have continuously said over and over, jobs is the key to this whole thing. Regardless of how people “feel” about the outlook of the economy, if they do not have a job to pay bills and buy “things” then we are headed lower – point blank. Fortunately for Members and I, we are positioned wonderfully for the run at 880. Who said you couldn’t make money shorting?
Here is the chart of the /ES since yesterday’s close. Know you can visually see what happened this morning. Amazing turn around. Look for 890 then 880 as likely support areas today.
Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
June 24th, 2009
Big deal honestly. I mean who really thought they would increase them right? Following this morning’s move higher, we are now sitting right at support around 905 on the S&P 500. Ironically enough this is the level that I had mentioned time and again as the next rally point. If we break below this level it’s back to 890 in a hurry – mark my words.
Fed Interest Rate Decision Today – Wait For The Break
June 24th, 2009
Another Fed day is here and ready to shake the markets after Uncle Ben speaks. Typically investors and traders alike will wait for the decision at 2:15 EST – but futures rallied early following some durable-goods data. We also have some fairly important data on New Home Sales coming out today earlier on. These two big components of the economy will likely shape the day – so stay on your toes.
As for our short portfolio, we are probably going to give some profits back on today’s retracement. The key as always will be staying below major resistance levels – namely 915 at the highest on the S&P and 8,500 on the DOW. We stay below those at the close and it just builds a case for adding shorts.
We also need to watch the movement in the dollar and bonds for today’s rate decision. The TLT below which tracks bonds had recovered recently. Will it continue this surge today though? Only Benny knows.
Another Technical Bounce Of My Targets
June 23rd, 2009
Interesting day right? Wrong! Completely boring once again. It’s like the market is teasing us with huge moves then a week of sideways action. But, we have to be patient right. I think in general everyone is waiting for the FOMC meeting announcement tomorrow before placing some major bets.
Anyways, it was interesting to see once again that the S&P bounced off of my technical target at 890 this morning. Amazing how these levels continue to work out.
ETF Breakouts Across The Board – The Big Turn?
June 23rd, 2009
Morning all! As I went though some charts late last night – surprise surprise right – I found a couple areas that had some great technical trendline breakouts. Whats interesting is that there are breakouts across the board, meaning that this turn in the markets we are seeing may have a very broad effect. Of course this is great for those who are positioned for the big turn – ahem, like us!
ABX, a gold ETF has clearly broken it’s uptrend. From here the next support should be around $28.
DUG ultra short Oil & Gas has already made a huge breakout. This one we already knew about because we were long ERY – the 3X Oil Bear and made a killing on it the past two weeks.
Finally, EEV is the ultra short emerging markets ETF. Again, this one has clearly broken it’s downtrend – meaning that the emerging markets are going to continue the fall. I even think that last night most overseas markets were down hard.
Sometimes I Think Technical Analysis Is Too Good
June 22nd, 2009
Really though, these past couple of weeks has been an amazing learning experience for most of you beginning traders. Day in and day out I have been hand feeding you support and resistance targets based on technical analysis. And day in and day out they have been RIGHT ON! This morning I alerted everyone that the S&P would likely fall to 895 before finding support. And from the chart below you can see that we opened up lower and went right for that support level. Just amazing! Are you a believer yet? It’s right here in color for you!
Oil’s fall today was great as it moved down more than 3% and broke below a major Fib support level. This allowed us to close out our ERY LONG for a nearly 40% profit in just 2 WEEKS! From here the target support is somewhere in the green region below.
Finally, here is one of Member’s best performing shorts today. We had many others down 5-7% today as well, but we are in the money more than 20% on this gem. The complete trade is again in Green below for you to see. It’s break of major Fib support on fairly high volume means more downside is coming for sure.
Closing Out ERY LONG At 40% Profit In 2 Weeks!
June 22nd, 2009
Just an amazing day for us bearz with the market falling hard. We are already past the 905 level on the S&P, so the next target is 895 this week sometime. Still, we have shorts across the board that are down 6% here and 10% there JUST TODAY ALONE! Here is ERY, the most profitable position that we are closing out right now. It’s been great considering the slide in Oil prices. The complete trade is in GREEN below. We made 40%+ on this LONG in just 2 WEEKS!
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Today's Live Market Quotes & Charts
| DJIA | 10320.10 | ||||
| NASDAQ | 2200.01 | ||||
| S&P 500 | 1090.10 | ||||
| ^TNX | 2.63 | ||||
| ^XAU | 186.41 | ||||
| ^XOI | 976.22 | ||||
| GLD | 122.29 | ||||
| GDX | 53.57 | ||||
| SDS | 32.67 | ||||
| SKF | 20.89 | ||||
| TLT | 104.88 | ||||
| FAZ | 14.50 | ||||
| XLE | 53.55 | ||||
| TBT | 31.96 | ||||
| ERY | 50.18 | ||||
| URE | 44.65 |
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