Day Trading – The Bullz And Bearz
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Markets Sell Off Into The Close – Missing The Old Days
May 19th, 2009
Again, another boring day on the whole. Really I’m starting to miss those wild swings of 4% and 5% that we had all the way back in September and October. It just makes things move slower which for some people I know is frustrating. But, we have to remember that trading stocks and options takes time and more than anything else, patience. Don’t let the daily ups and downs take hold of your emotions and ruin your portfolio.
As per today’s actions, if you take a look at any daily chart you would see that today was absolutely FLAT. Really the only action was 30 mins before the close when we went from positive territory to close down after a late day sell off. But again the sell off was only of about 40 points or so – nothing to shake a stick at clearly. The re-test of the breakout seems for now to be holding strong. As I looked through my charts yesterday and today I will admit that there are some – not a lot but SOME – stocks which are starting to look more and more bullish. Who knows, by the end of the week I may be adding a couple LONGS to our ultra-short portfolio – just not right now of course.
I’ll be back later on with a Trading Video as I am currently trying to finish up the Member’s Only Video so I can send it out tonight. Also, the Option Writers report went out last night. You can still get a copy of it with the 2 Week Free Trail if you sign up before TOMORROW.
Housing Starts, Permits Fall – Markets Slightly Higher
May 19th, 2009
Slow day today, but it’s giving me a lot of time to run through all my charts. The markets are trading slightly higher but nothing amazing. Across the board stocks are mixed depending on where you are looking. So, for now here is a great short idea to think about…
It Was All Bullz Today – Maybe I Should Go Back On Vacation
May 18th, 2009
Here is the Trading Video for today’s actions and to wrap up what happened last week. As for a couple of notes:
1) The Member’s Only Portfolio Videowill be going out tomorrow sometime. I need to spend some more time looking over charts and working out our risk management strategy before sending it out.
2) I know a lot of you have been waiting for me to get back for a Coaching Session. Now, that I’m back I will be contacting everyone soon. If you are thinking about a Coaching Session I strongly urge you to schedule it soon.
3) The Option Writers Weekly Report will be going out later on tonight. The option trades from last week were highly profitable. I suggest everyone at least sign up for the 2 Week Free Trial. Honestly, the strategy I am presenting is highly – HIGHLY – profitable.
It’s Great To Be Back As See The Markets Down
May 18th, 2009
Well good morning Traders! As many of you know I got back very late last night from our cruise. It is a little hard to come back to the cooler east coast weather today considering we have been so spoiled with 90 degrees and sunshine all week. But I do want to thank everyone for their kind emails. Our family only really goes on a big vacation once a year and it’s always worth the time off. Before we got into talking about the markets, I just wanted to share some pictures with you all – since so many of you had asked for them:
Here is one merchant’s sign from Barbados…funny right?
This was a view from our taxi heading towards Megan’s Bay in St. Thomas.
Just another view of Charlote Amalie, the capital of St.Thomas.
Island view from inside our small plane. Sorry you I couldn’t get much closer for a picture.
And finally a picture from the streets of Old San Juan, Puerto Rico.
Okay, well I hope you all enjoyed the little slide show here. If anything I highly recommend heading to St. Thomas and Puerto Rico whenever you get a chance. Now back to the markets!
First, I want to say how unbelievably please I am that we have seen a very significant move from the highs of last week. As many of you know I had “gone public” with my short term top call at the end of last week. I guess this past week the luck was on our side bearz as the market had a very significant weekly decline. Clearly our heavy short portfolio did amazing – once again, AMAZING – this past week. The vast majority of our shorts are now in the 10%+ profit range with a couple over 20%+!
Ironically enough, it just goes to show you that you don’t have to be at home all day to make money trading the markets. The plan that I had laid out for members before I left was very clear and covered all our bases. We has adjusted our stops as well as placing some “take profit” orders in case the market really started to crash hard. Regardless, we are sitting wonderfully positioned for the weeks to come.
Getting started this morning with the S&P 500, you will find the updated support and resistance targets below. Considering how quick I think things moved last week, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see a sideways week, or even a slightly up week here before resuming the fall. Again, things don’t just move straight up or straight down. Really though you have to think about how long we were in that rally – almost two months. So clearly a meaningful correction should last at least 3-4 weeks. In my opinion, anywhere around 800 where Fib support is located would be a great area to start covering shorts and going long. But, this may not be until June, so hold onto your shorts until then!
Oil continues to show topping tendencies. Again a target around $45-50 would be a great area to go long oil and gas.
Here is just one look at a short of ours. Since we got into DIN around 34.50 it’s off more than 25%! It’s lost 1/4 of it’s value in just two weeks. Plenty of room to run on this one as realistic support isn’t until around $21.
Okay, that I think wraps it up for now. This has got to be one of my longest posts but very much needed. Of course I will talk about much more on tonight’s TRADING VIDEO. As another note; our Option Writers report that went out last weekend will be going out again tonight sometime. The option trades from last week are already profitable and now have an 80%+ chance of making us money. So, I cannot strongly urge you enough to take a look at the 2 WEEK FREE TRIAL.
I’m BAAAAACKKKK!!!
May 17th, 2009
It’s very very very early in the morning and I’m finally back from the cruise! I’ll be updated everyone big time tomorrow morning, but right now it’s too late. Hey…how about that market falling hard this week while I was gone? Great stuff!
Shorting Opportunity Of The Year – There I Said It
May 8th, 2009
Honestly I do not like coming out and making bold and firm projections, but we have an amazing opportunity in front of us. The NASDAQ – being the most over-bought has already shown signs of very large weakness. In addition, the Russell – chart below – is also extremely weak. Moreover, stocks that usually would be going up with the market have already started to move down – namely our shorts that had a great ride up continued to move down today albeit by more than 3-5%! Of course this may just be great stock picking on my part 
but I’m seeing it across the board in all different sectors.
I’ll have another Trading Video for you all tonight with a bunch of the best shorting ideas I’ve been collecting. But for now, let’s remember what happened to the Russell when everyone was buying in at the top of the last move in Jan…
A Couple More Short Financial Ideas To Think About
May 8th, 2009
Markets are back to square one as far as the ES is concerned. Still, practically all – with the exception of two – of our shorts are down another 2-3% today. If we get a sell off at the close I would expect these profits to turn the corner and head towards the 4-6% area. But, in the mean time, here are a couple great short financial ideas for you all to think about. They are not just ready yet, but will be easy pickins’ later next week!
FITB
HBAN
Umemployment Rate Rises To 8.9% – This Will Trickle Down
May 8th, 2009
First, I still want to encourage everyone to check out the Option Writers FREE Trail because there have been a bunch of people who have signed up and this Free thing may not last much longer.
Moving to the markets, the jobless number came in higher at 8.9%. This means that basically 1 in 10 people you see DO NOT have a job. So, how can people spend and save to stimulate the economy when they do not have money coming in each month. Just think for a second, if people have no money coming in but are living paycheck to paycheck – then don’t you think people will start charging more on credit cards and start building up MORE debt. I’ll let you guys think about that for a while…
As for the futures and the direction this morning. Overnight things were positive but have given back half of the early morning move. I think we will still open up higher today, but as for the close, well we will just have to see how panicky people get by Friday afternoon. I’m not at all worried about giving something back on our short trades considering most were down over 3-4% yesterday. These are all breaking down and the next month or so is going to be EXTREMELY profitable for us traders.
Below is your chart of the beautiful chart of the NASDAQ which we need to keep an eye on today. Still, all the signals point lower over the next month or so for this index.
Here is the recent chart of Oil. My target is still between $40-45. Talk amongst yourself on this one…
What Happened Bullz? Did You Get Scared?
May 7th, 2009
Well, my wonderful charts still are not working which is difficult to say the least with all my positions today. I’m glad that minor blip higher this morning was short lived before everyone started selling off. As a result, I don’t have to watch my positions as close as I know there are more profits compounding today. Of course we still have some time to go before the close today, so I don’t want to say too much. But, hey, wasn’t everyone running around crazy this morning trying to buy everything with a ticker? What happened to all the “great expectations” of another 2% move up on the markets. See what I’m hinting at here traders…
More Of The Same – Keep Loading Up Bearz!
May 7th, 2009
Busy morning for me here trying to get my wonderful charts back online. My broker is having trouble with the charting software which is making it harder for me to go through my normal morning routine. This also explains the lack of S&P trading target updates for now. The US futures have spiked once more on financials and GM earnings news. It’s gotten to the point where even idiots think they can make money going long – which will quickly reverse onto of them. I’ll probably be adding more positions to the portfolio today including some very large index put positions – can you tell how bearish I am when I bluntly am telling you that I will be adding index puts…back later if my charts get working (crossing my fingers!)
Buying And Selling More Positions After This Morning’s Pop
May 6th, 2009
I have been pretty active this morning adding new positions to my portfolio, both with some more shorts and some long ETF’s. If this morning pull back from the opening highs holds through the day, then the case for the an interim top is VERY good. Still, members and I have a bunch of shorts that are trading down very well – over 4% for a couple of them right now. Watch financials and the commodities for the early signals out there! Back later as things develop. Sorry for no chart this time, but here’s a favorite picture of mine!Actually I think this is the first real picture other than a chart I’ve put up here.
Stress Test Results – BAC Needs $34B – Inverse ETF Ideas
May 6th, 2009
First, I hope everyone checks out the Option Writers free trial. Believe me, there have already been over 150 people sign up so this will not last long! Now onto trading business, I guess the stress test results weren’t that great – especially for BAC which apparently needs nearly $34 Billions in new capital. Again that Billions with a “B” people! Now quickly onto the charts as there is a lot or work to do today with new positions I am looking to enter in here. I was going to enter some positions at the open but have decided to wait until mid-day considering the futures are jumping again.
Still, I think that a couple of Inverse ETF plays might be in store here considering how cheap they are right now. Particularly the QID which tracks the NASDAQ and is trading around $35 or so. This might be a great trade for those people who still don’t feel comfortable shorting and would rather go long. I’m sure I’ll be back later today with some more outrageous comments about this market rallying.
Here’s A Great Short Idea To Help Pass The Time
May 5th, 2009
Markets are trading down about 1% today, but not much going on. As I glance through some more charts – what else could I do with my time right – I am seeing a couple more areas that are starting to turn – namely casinos and the like. But here is just one more short idea that has reached a very solid resistance level. Enjoy!
Stress Test Results Today – Will Big Banks Need More Money?
May 5th, 2009
Flat day this morning in the futures markets. Currently, we are trading slightly down from yesterday but this could change at any moment. I guess the stress test results are going to be in focus today and rightly so considering that most of the big banks are going to need more money. Honestly, does this actually come as a surprise to some people? Regardless if they banks need money – which they probably will – the big question is whether the expectations are already priced into the charts. I think if there is nothing out of the ordinary, then we might see the financials rally a bit more. They are still way over bought but there may be better prices to short them after the news comes out.
Looking at the commodity sector, you can see that the CRX index has hit a MAJOR retracement level. This is kind of parabolic move up is absolutely not sustainable. I would expect this index to fall back down to at least 500 before going higher.
Okay, considering how fast we rose yesterday right to my trading target, I’m expecting a pull back today based on short term over-sold indicators. As such, I have updated the intra-day S&P trading targets below. As a note, if we get around 930 or so today then I WILL be buying SPY and DIA puts. That kind of a move would be a bears’ dream short trade. Let’s see how the day plays out…
It Was All Bullz Today As Real Estate, Obama, Banks Push Higher
May 4th, 2009
Let’s face it – the bullz were in control today. Or at least in the market’s case. It just goes to show us that things can always go higher (and lower) than we ever would think. Granted, my gut feeling seems to be that “the faster they rise, the harder they fall.” But, just quickly glancing over my positions I can see that nothing today makes me change my opinion about my positions – i.e. the outlook for these are bearish far and away.
We did get stopped out of one position today right at the open, but our stops literally SAVED us about 4% by getting us out early. If we were stuck holding these right now because we were stupid and didn’t put in stop orders - than we would be looking at an additional 4% loss. Again, USE STOP LOSS ORDERS! If anything, they will save you money even though you think closing out a position at a lose is a bad move.
Now, onto our shinning star today – CMTL! Talk about an amazing move in one single day. From the chart below you can see that the huge window from March and April held tight as major resistance. After the retracement last week to around 35.00, member’s and I shorted this stock and now have a 15%+ profit! Notice the huge volume behind the move that supports lower levels from here. Just another example of how not every stock moves with the markets in lock-step.
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Today's Live Market Quotes & Charts
| NASDAQ | 2778.79 | ||||
| S&P 500 | 1295.22 | ||||
| ^TNX | 1.70 | ||||
| ^XAU | 147.76 | ||||
| ^XOI | 0.00 | ||||
| IWM | 74.69 | ||||
| RWM | 28.72 | ||||
| EDZ | 18.69 | ||||
| CMD | 59.91 | ||||
| GLD | 154.55 | ||||
| ERY | 13.31 | ||||
| FXP | 31.37 | ||||
| URE | 56.72 | ||||
| USO | 34.43 | ||||
| TLT | 124.20 |
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