Day Trading – The Bullz And Bearz

1 Big Down Day Erases 10 Up Days

April 20th, 2009

Bearz Take Full Control And Trigger Sell Off – BAC Down 25%

April 20th, 2009

Wow! What a great start to the week huh? Looking across the board at our strictly short portfolio all I see is profits today. Believe me when I say that today’s actions wipe away all the noise from last week as a number of our shorts were down over 6% today alone. Take a look at the chart below of the DOW and notice how we have successfully re-tested the APEX of the two trendlines in black. We didn’t break these levels but rather they acted a great resistance areas. Also, with today’s huge sell-off, the bearz have taken nearly two weeks worth of hard-earned gains right from the bullz. Clearly, as I have said before this move down was swift and fast. Those of you who were not patient and go scared lost money today. But, members and I have been holding steady for a while now and it’s paid off big time today. I’ll be back later on tonight for a new trading video.

WYNN Short Off More Than 7% As Market Falls

April 20th, 2009

It’s still early in the morning for the trading day, but nearly all of member’s shorts are down today. And not only are they down, but some are down fairly big – i.e. WYNN below for example. Financials and Oil seem to be leading the way like I said they would. I have a very good feeling that this is just the beginning this week. Be some of you wish you had heard about these shorts before they moved – perks of membership I guess.

Six Consecutive Week Rally Will End: Lucky 7 For The Bears?

April 20th, 2009

That’s right folks, I said it last week; if we make it six consecutive weeks then the markets will close lower this week. And here we are starting out the 7th week on a positive – for the bearz – note judging by pre-market action with the indexes down over 1%. Last week the Financial sector led the way as Goldman Sachs (GS), JP Morgan (JPM) and Citigroup(C) all reported moderately better-than-expected first quarter results – mostly on trading for JPM. We are now starting the busiest two weeks of the quarter with nearly 140 major companies reporting earnings. With the S&P 500 now up 28.5% over the last six weeks, I am expecting most of news to be mixed and therefore not send us any higher short term. This is because so many companies already came in ahead of forecasts that anything less than everyone beating estimates will send us down.

Taking a look at the banking sector – and BAC in particular – you can see from the chart below that we reached a major Fib retracement level this week. Keep in mind that these levels go back nearly 20 years for BAC which only adds to their importance. The rally from $2.50 to over $10.50 was really strong, but clearly NOT a long term base in the least. BAC topped estimates this morning so I would wait a day or two before shorting this stock.

Moving to Oil. I have said over and over that it will lead us down and that is exactly what’s happening today. It’s down more than 4% this morning and trading $48.00/barrel. I have kept my short term target of between $40 and $45 for oil in blue below. Clearly, that is the best technical level for Oil to bounce off of in the coming weeks.

Okay and finally moving to our old friend the S&P. I know you all have been waiting for these today and here they are. Keep an eye on 812 this week as good bearish target. As for the member’s portfolio, we took some great profits on AEM last week and moved down stops on a lot of our shorts to lock in profits. The prospects are amazing this week for our shorts – and it’s not too late to get into some of these. I’ll be back afternoon time for some more thoughts.

The Heart Of Earnings Season – GOOG, GE, Citi All Top Estimates

April 17th, 2009

First, I hope you checked out last night’s Trading Video. Very important stuff on there. Lots of news for the market to sift through today with nearly all of the big name companies having very good earnings reports since yesterday’s market close. Google, GE and Citi all beat estimates. Good thing I didn’t suggest going long FAZ yet as there is still more up-side in these financials. Still, members and I have tightened stops on some of our more profitable positions this morning – locking in profits of nearly 15% on some trades.

As for today’s actions, if we close higher today, that will put us into a 6 week positive movement – which is a very rare bird in deed. 6 weeks of positive gains is way more than enough to convince me of AT LEAST one down week coming up. Having said that, if we get any higher near the close today I WILL be buying index puts! 6 week rallies are great but they are NOT sustainable in the least. You can mark this post as I will be referring to it in the future when I link back to it and say “I told you so!”

Here are your updated S&P targets. If you look back at yesterday’s morning post, my target resistance level was 871 and the high of the day was 870 before the market pulled back. Again these levels work! Use them to your advantage!

Relentless Buyers Push Markets Higher – AEM Short Down 20%+

April 16th, 2009

Relentless Push Higher Today – Option Expiration To Blame?

April 16th, 2009

Surprise, surprise. Another late day rally sparked today after what was shaping up to be another mixed to flat trading. I don’t really blame or give credit to option expiration, but there is definitely some positioning going on for the big boys. As far as the short portfolio is concerned, it wasn’t as bad of a beating as most of you would think. Yes we took a very clean haircut on some short trades, but stocks like AEM below – which was down just over 7% today alone – more than made up the difference. Some of the other retailers we shorted were also down today – only 1% or so but still down given the rally.

I have some very important charts and indicators that I am going to show everyone tonight on the Trading Video. Mainly that volume is drying out as we move higher and some very bullish candle patterns are starting to take shape. In a nut shell, it’s starting to smell like a very profitable trap for the bullz. Everything from the VIX to Oil and the Indexes are stretching and holding on as tight as possible. Our day will come bearz.

JPM Beats Estimates On Trading Revenue – That’s TRADING!

April 16th, 2009

First things first. I actually got a chance to meet one of my members face to face last night at the Tea Party. Very smart young man with a great family – Thanks Edward! Again, this just reminds me how grateful I am to have such amazing people stop by this site each and everyday.

Moving on to my morning frustration. I am continually amazed at how most – not all – people think that all these big banks do is make loans and “invest” in the markets. Of course they do much more than that; including running their own trading desks for profits. Since I have worked for these big guys in the past you can trust me that there are floors and floors in their buildings strictly devoted to day trading and market speculation. Hundreds of traders go to work each day doing exactly what we are doing from the comfort of our homes. So, if it’s good enough and profitable enough for those fat cats on Wall Street, don’t you think you should get a piece of the pie too? Ahem…OF COURSE YOU SHOULD! JPM made their money this quarter off trading revenues – TRADING REVENUES NOT “BUY AND HOLD REVENUES!” There is clearly money to be made out there in this profession for those who have the right strategy and direction.

Okay, morning thoughts. Futures were still acting skiddish this morning following what could have been seen as great financial news. As most of you know, members and I got into a couple more amazing short trades and took advantage of the semi-boring trading day. I’m really excited about the opportunities on these positions given how far most of them have run up recently – over 100% on most. Clearly a correction is needed – of at least 15-20% – on most of these stocks which is where we are going to make money. As far as the S&P is concerned, we still have not hit any of my intra-day targets yet. This sideways actions is more than likely causing a lot of stress for those “quick buck” traders. Still, a move down to 800 is pretty much a no-brainer for a continued move higher.

Tax Day, Tea Parties And New Short Trades

April 15th, 2009

What was shaping up to be another snooze of a trading day ended with a bang for the bullz. Granted they didn’t even come close to yesterday’s open but still a healthy push – maybe it’s just the final kiss goodbye before we sell off fast. Still, the slow time gave members and I a chance to enter into a couple more short trades (or put options depending on the security) before the close today. I still cannot believe how over-bought some of these companies are out there. The same mentality is in place here at the top as it was down at the bottom – just in reverse of course. Remember when we were at the bottom and nobody would have ever thought that BAC and C and WFC would be up several hundred percent in a matter of week right? Yet here we are with everyone thinking that there is no way we can go lower from here, that all of the economy’s problems are solved and that the long term bottom is in. The truth is that all those people are dead wrong and every chart I look at is say “short me please!”

As for a note on Tax Day. While my taxes were done many weeks ago, you can image all the pages and pages of trades that I had to go through last year – 43 to be exact – I still am of the opinion that most individuals pay way too much tax in this country. Of course this probably won’t change anytime soon given that the government is spending like a drunken sailor, the fact still remains that if you rob people of their incentive to produce and create goods and services we will see more and more people asking for hand-outs. Believe me, I give my fair share and then some to different organizations, but why work to make another $1 when the government is going to take $0.50 – in my tax bracket with my state’s income tax? As such, I am off the DC tea party! Hope to see some of you there!

More Job Losses This Morning As Futures Remain Fairly Flat

April 15th, 2009

Morning all! After yesterday’s great sell off which helped rocket a lot of our shorts into some pretty good profit ranges, I’m really just expecting a kind of “boring” day again here. Futures all morning have been fairly flat and swinging between positive and negative territory. All in all, I spent the better part of last night looking through my hundreds of charts in search of some more great short ideas and found a couple gems I think members and I are going to get into this week.

Believe me, the more charts I look at the more I am expecting a very substantial correction to come in the markets. Everything from retailers to financials seems way too over-bought in the short term and due for a retracement of some kind before moving higher later on. And, the truth is that most of these short ideas have gone up over 100% in just the last month. If you think about the psychology of the investors behind these securities, they just made 100% very quick and easy and will absolutely be looking to take some money off the table. Remember the whole fear and greed thing – they are starting to fear losses and will be greedy enough to sell their holdings now at such high levels. This of course creates the opportunity for traders like us to come in a profit from their unloading.

Here is a chart of the DOW (which I also mentioned on last night’s Trading Video). As you can see we are right at the apex of the two resistance lines from the triangle pattern breakout in early Feb – or right around 8,000. Now, notice that the next support level isn’t until the Fib retracement level just below 7,400. With this in mind, I think the most likely outcome will be that the markets move down to somewhere around 7,500 – which is great round number support highlighted in blue here – before making another move higher. Of course this will take the better part of the next week or so to happen which gives us trades the time to make some money on the way down – like we always do!

Shorts Down 8% Today – Bring On More Profits

April 14th, 2009

Mid-Day, Retail Sales Sending Us Lower – Reality Sets In

April 14th, 2009

Well, I think the breakdown is really starting to happen. People and investors are realizing that with such high jobless rates and no money, people cannot purchase goods and services – i.e. the retail sales numbers were horrible. Of course, this has been great for members and I as our shorts are down very well today. WMT again is another stand-out another with some other big retail names in our portfolio – some down over 5% today alone. With regard to the financials, it’s pretty safe to say that if you are long you should be closing out your positions – um ASAP! Let’s see where the rest of the day is headed, but the outlook is great.

Financials Continue Rally But Markets Stall – Correction Coming

April 13th, 2009

Protected: Member’s Portfolio – April 13th

April 13th, 2009

Back To Work – S&P 5 Week Rally Ending This Week

April 13th, 2009

I hope that everyone had a great 3-day weekend. I know I enjoyed the time off with family and friends. I know that after weeks of non-stop market action, it was great to step back and reflect on everything – trading included. Per the headline, last week was the 5th week that the S&P closed positive. As such, I am very confident that we are going to close net down this week – even if it’s a small close down. We need to start realizing that bull markets do not form in 5 weeks and need to re-test lows for more confidence. Pull-backs and consolidation are very natural and frankly needed during rallies. Below are the updated S&P intra-day targets. If you remember from Thursday, we rallied right to my resistance level where the markets got stopped dead in their tracks. So again, I suggest that you watch these levels very closely today.

WMT Short Looking Great Today – Down 5%+ On Weak Sales

April 9th, 2009

WMT reported weaker than expected sales today. Great thing members and I have been short it since $54.50 of last week. As you can tell by the chart below, we are sitting with pretty fat profits today and will continue to hold this all the way down! As for the markets, renewed strenght has come back into the picture as usual with more funny money news around the world. I still am going to hold my shorts until we get the correction. Today should be interesting considering we have a very long weekend when anything can happen.

Markets Fall Another 2%+, Shorts In The Money

April 7th, 2009

More Profits For The Bearz And Pain For The Bullz

April 7th, 2009

Snooze! What a pretty boring day to say the least. Granted the markets closed down almost 2.5% and most of members shorts were down another 2-5% on top of some great moves yesterday. All in all things are shaping up nicely once again for the bearz. Of course I’ll do another video early tonight. But for now I just wanted to show you a chart of where we found support today. If you had checked my post this morning, I said that we would find support short term between 815 and 810 – and low and behold we closed exactly at 815. If you notice from the chart below, the green area is my support target…at least it was for today and will not be for tomorrow. I think that the late and quick sell off we had during the last 15 mins of the session today signals more downside to come. After we re-traced back to the trendline around 820 we quickly moved away. See you tonight bearz.

Bearish News Late As Usual, Keep An Eye On 810 Level

April 7th, 2009

Morning folks! First, please watch the trading video from last night for some great short trading ideas. Now, onto this mornings news as the futures are down about 1.5%. Basically after yesterday’s weakness a bunch of analysts and commentators are NOW saying that we are due for a correction. Huh, ya think! Some predict a 10% drop from here – I think this is way too much but hey it’s always likely.

The point is that these people are always late to the dinner bell – as they have always been and will always be. If you just flipped through a couple charts over the last few days you would have seen that we need a correction before going higher. Charting and technical analysis gives the early warning signals which allowed members and I to build up a strong portfolio of shorts BEFORE this downward move happens – which we are going to profit on today. Remember I said in a video last week, “if you want to go long, be my guest but you’re going to lose money.” Alright, enough bashing the media, they can’t help but try and help their own ratings.

Here are the S&P intra-day targets. We haven’t moved much over the last few days, so these have stayed the same. You might think these are getting boring or unless since we don’t hit the targets. Well, the point is that these are far enough away that if we make it to these targets you can feel comfortable making an intra-day long or short play with amazing odds for a reversal. You should always have these levels on your charts.

As for the 810 level. I think that we are going to find short term support there today. Actually support could be in a very narrow range between 815 and 810. The ES S&P mini’s this morning fell right to 815 before finding support, so clearly there are buyers at that level. Depending on what happens during the first hours of trading will determine if we break below that and head lower. Still, I will be watching this level all day long for the signal.

In A Giving Mood, Here Are Some Short Trades

April 6th, 2009