Day Trading – The Bullz And Bearz

Chrslyer Bankruptcy, Consumer Spending Win Out Today

April 30th, 2009

What a great emotional reversal of the markets we watched today. Opening the day we had optimism and the irrational thoughts that we would shoot higher and shrug off the bad news. Then all the investors out there started to think about the reality – i.e. the market is over stretched. We went from a 2% gain to just over-broke all in 1 day. As you can see on a chart of the NASDAQ which has a very dim outlook, we hit again hit the underneath of the major trendline in black. My target is somewhere around 1,500 during late May or Early June.

Now, being the professional that I am with the experience I have, I advised everyone this morning that this was nothing but “HOOK-LINE-AND SINKER” for all the investors who listen and follow the media and news. This is why I started this blog – to help everyone not get trapped by these false ideas each day! Most of the people who make up this great blogging community realize that now, but still some are too far gone. Case in point – I got an email today at 11:15am, just minutes after the top today, telling me that he was going long 50% of his portfolio! Of course I tried to tell him otherwise, but people will make their own decisions I guess. So what’s the point Kirk right? The point is this that the charts have all the information you need and all the expectations already priced in. If it hits the news you are too late – period.

Not So Fast There Bullz!

April 30th, 2009

I said this morning that this would happen. And here we are with a real battle on our hands, yet the morning pop that we all thought would send us to 1,000 on the S&P has fizzled out fast! Clearly looking at the chart of the DOW below, we have gone from up 2% to virtually no gain…incredible how this happens. Of course, our shorts are enjoying the ride down as I am seeing mostly green on my trading screen.

Chrysler Bankruptcy & The Truth About Earnings Estimates

April 30th, 2009

There has to be something said about a market that keeps shrugging off bad news and focusing on the minor good news. The really big news this morning is the expectations that Chrysler is more than likely going to declare bankruptcy. Of course the Fed and the Obama admin is blaming the hedge funds for NOT coming in a buying up a company that has horrible sales. Clearly they are not going to buy up a company if it doesn’t make sense financially for them.

Now, let me tell you all the truth about what is happening with earnings this quarter. Since we had just absolute horrible earnings in the second half of last year, nearly all analyst have lowered their expectations and estimates so much that there companies are now “beating” estimates solely on the fact that the analyst is expecting the worst. Still, if you look at these companies a little deeper you would find that they are still struggling. Besides the GDP FELL 6.1%! That means the economy shrank! Think about it realistically – if we are shrinking then how can we grow?

Following last night’s Obama speech, the expectations have naturally gotten better. Everyone thinks that we will just shrug off all the bad news and keep going higher – won’t happen. Again, logic tells us that creating so much national debt in the past 3 months is not beneficial in the long term. Enough said about this, but remember that I worked on the inside for Wall Street’s big players. This hype is just “hook-line-and-sinker” to get people falling over themselves to buy stocks that are over-priced.

As for the markets today, personal income and spending are down. The futures have pulled back slightly but still signal a higher open. Again, how can the economy expand if consumers has less income and are spending less? Moving on, Oil is up this morning after NEARLY hitting my target range around $45 - which I still feel confident about over the next week or so. Member’s portfolio is still ultra short, but wouldn’t you rather be short a stock that’s had a 700% vertical move in the last month or long at the top of a 32% move up in the market? Don’t you think going long at these levels would be stupid? Of course it would be since the risk/reward is not in your favor.

Weak Preformance Bullz – Great Entry On Shorts Members

April 29th, 2009

Honestly, that was an incredibly weak showing after the Fed decision. Granted we did break the recent highs but only for minutes before quickly falling right back down. Looking at the chart below which shows in green the trading following the FED decision. We jumped up above resistance for a couple minutes then down we went fast. Once again, I point out the fact that this market has over-extended itself in more areas than one. Mr. Market, you cannot keep going up every day.

For those of you out there who know how to make money in both directions – today’s actions presented huge opportunities. Members and I made nearly 3% today alone due to the Fed sell off on one of our shorts after entering the trade early this afternoon. So, that’s 3% in the bag after say about 4 hours! We are stacked heavy with shorts and I feel great about all their prospects!

FED Behind Us Now – False Breakout?

April 29th, 2009

It’s been a fun ride thus far today as it usually is on these days. The market shot up after the meeting announcement but has since fallen back down to the critical 875 level on the S&P. Notice below that IF we stay lower than we are now into the close, this could be a very important false breakout. Regardless, members and I have entered into some more short positions – namely in restaurants – with HUGE profit potential. Trading Video to come tonight!

GDP Falls 6.1% – Markets Shrugging It Off For Now

April 29th, 2009

Okay, I told everyone that 875 would be the first big test for the bullz and here we are up hitting that level right on the dot. Check out the chart of the S&P below and you can see that we really need to break past the upper resistance zone. Our shorts are trading up – obviously – but not any big gaps or alarming moves. If anything, you should not be going long at these levels as there is way too much risk and very little reward. I’ll follow up after the FOMC meeting announcement.

GDP Falls 6.1% – Fed Interest Rate Decision At 2:15PM

April 29th, 2009

This is going to be one of those days where news does have a very important effect on the markets. GDP was just announced and fell 6.1% which was worse than expected. Since the futures had a knee jerk down but are still up since consumer spending seemed to be the only bright spot in the GDP report. So not only do we have to deal with GDP news and trading volatility with respect to that, but the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will announce it’s latest decision on interest rates at 2:15pm. Granted nobody is expecting it to change from 0.25% but the important thing will be their policy statement as it may signal when they expect to raise rates in the futures. Make no mistake, rates will have to go up at some point to counter act the inflation that is coming down the road.

Below is the updated S&P intra-day trading targets. I would watch 875 level today if we shoot a lot higher. After that, the 893 level would be a great area to short the market in general.

Members and I added some more shorts yesterday with huge short term profit potential – some over 25%. We are already in the green fractionally, so any upside today would be mute to say the least. Below is RT which again I will point out as an amazing shorting opportunity after being up nearly 700% in the last couple of months and hitting a major Fib retracement level. On another note: it’s the day before Chrysler must merge or declare bankruptcy. It will be interesting how CEO Obama – or the new “Visible Hand” – deals with the situation.

These Trading Ideas Could Make You Thousands Of Dollars

April 28th, 2009

Another boring day in the markets, but it gave me the needed time to go through hundreds of charts and gather up some amazing short trading ideas. Of course, this type of “hand-out” is not going to happen much, so enjoy it while it lasts. Members already have the best of the best. Still, going short over the next couple of weeks is going to make a lot of people (including myself) thousands of dollars.

Bank Stress Test & Capital Concerns Sending Us Lower

April 28th, 2009

After a completely boring day yesterday, let’s all hope things start moving faster today. Judging by another pre-market morning with futures down over 1% again, we may just get what we have been hoping for – a sustained sell off. We have been moving sideways for over a month now and we need a new direction. Oil is again continuing it’s slide as I have said over and over again it would. Member’s and I will be entering some new short trades this morning. Of course all of these short are what I like to call “Low Hanging Fruit.” Honestly it’s like cherry picking the best of the best and profiting all the way down. They are all way over-bought and hitting major resistance zones. Can’t get any easier than this!

Taking a look at the NASDAQ outlook – you can see on the chart below in Blue that it has been hitting very hard against the underneath of the trend line in black. Notice that it’s touched the resistance zone nearly 3 times exactly before moving away. Now that we are more getting stretched, a natural technical pull back would be to at least 1,500. I would be watching this index very closing out there traders!

Great Looking Short Idea – Western Union

April 27th, 2009

Markets are pretty boring today. Shorts are down but not that much – about 1% or so for most of them. Here is a great idea that another member emailed me this morning. WU is sitting at fairly strong support/resistance line around $18. Also if today’s candle pattern holds we will have a textbook shooting star on our hands. Let’s see where we end the day!

OIL Drops By 4%+ And Heads For My Target As Futures Fall

April 27th, 2009

Good morning traders! This weekend was great with all the HOT east coast weather, but it’s back to the charts this morning. For members, make sure you watch the Member’s Only Video this morning if you haven’t already.

Both the futures and Oil is trading much lower this morning. Oil is off more than 4% and very quickly headed for my $40-$45 trading target. As such, the US futures are looking to gap down just about 1% this morning. Of course, this week we really need a good 4-5% correction to start a new intermediate down trend. Below you will see the S&P trading targets. Clearly 812 is the magic number for this week. If we make it there in a hurry then 780 would be an ideal bounce type area.

Member’s short positions are still sitting very well. Most are already in a profitable range – i.e. BCR and others. We will continue to hold there until we see real buying power come back into the market. At the same time, I have a very long list of LONG trades that will be coming down the line very soon. The list – currently over 30+ really great set-ups – will get smaller with each day as I focus on the best trades later this week.

On anther note, I’ve had over 22 people earn free memberships through the affiliate program. I’m really glad to see people taking full advantage of this! Remember, you only need to refer two people – though more would be great – to get a free trading membership.

Wrapping Up The Week With A Hangman

April 24th, 2009

Let’s face it bearz, this week started off great – practically ideal – but really ended on a sour note. When I look at the last two weeks of trading, all we have done really is go up and down in a very small and defined window – between 830 and 875 on the S&P. Of course members have had some great short trades – including WMT for 9% and BCR for 15% – but they have been the few standouts. The rest are resisting the fall – for now at least.

Now, if we all take a step back and really look at the charts, all this is just telling us that neither the bullz nor the bearz are strong enough to push the market – i.e. sideways trading for the past 2 weeks. Now, as for the hangman pattern on the weekly chart below. This is a text book example of what happens before an intermediate top. The only thing we need to worry about with this type of pattern is that we need a close under the “head” or lower than we closed today for next week. If we get this then the pattern is confirmed and we should be headed down very fast. If not – and we close higher next week – then we may be in for some more sideways action. The member’s only video will go out Sunday with next weeks strategy and new Long trades coming up!

Protected: Member’s Only Video – Portfolio Strategy

April 24th, 2009

Don’t Get Sea Sick In This Market – We Still Made Money

April 23rd, 2009

Nothing Like Big Volume And A Big 8% Gap Down

April 23rd, 2009

Here is one of our stand-out shorts. I knew something was funny with this stock we shorted it last week. Since, we have locked in a very nice profit with stops but today’s huge gap down on incredible volume is very promising. Really, a target in the low 60′s is not going to be hard to get to after this move down. Bet some of you wish you were a member on this one huh?

Apple And E-Bay Earnings Send Futures Higher

April 23rd, 2009

Morning all! After the close yesterday we had a bunch of earnings announcements. These past three days have just flew by. Not to mention that the market swings have been very unpredictable to say the least. Still, this morning we are looking to open to the upside – whether we stay positive or fall back down again today is completely another subject. I have updated my S&P targets below for you all. We still seem to be in this little stage were we are just stuck in a small trading range for now. But, I think today and tomorrow will get us out of here and moving strong in some sort of direction.

YUM has been a great looking short idea that I wanted to let everyone know about. I am not short it right now, but it’s retracement of the Fib level in purple is very interesting. Depending on how it acts today – given that they reported earnings last night as well – will really show us if it’s ready for a move down or not.

GLD and gold in general has been forming a very strong short-term base as I said it would in a number of trading videos. I think a move up to 97.50 is a bit of a stretch for now, but something around 92.50 where my blue circle is would not be unrealistic. We will have to watch for this to move fast which would hopefully send the markets lower.

If You Blinked You Missed The 150 Point Sell-Off

April 22nd, 2009

Well well. That was great! I nearly walked away from my computers today thinking that we had another bull rally underway and low and behold the last hour of the trading day seemed to be just incredible for the bearz. Just looking at the chart below, clearly the bullz were in control today and FAZ looked like a falling rock. But, during the last hour – here in green – the bearz just took absolute control. We went from nearly a 1% gain to a 1% loss in a matter of mins.

After looking strong all day, OIL  and the Financials seemed to have been the big culprits in today’s late day sell-off. Quickly glancing through our shorts, most of these are sporting a very clean shooting star pattern that brings tears to a technical trader’s eyes. From here the mantra is down to 7,800 or so before some support comes into play. Be back later tonight after a Coaching Session with a trading video. Way to go bearz!

Option Writers, All In Favor Say ‘Aye’ – 500+ AYE’s

April 21st, 2009

Retracement Complete And Safely Under 8,000

April 21st, 2009

Decent pop today. Mostly led by more news out of the financials – at least for now. If you saw my last post you might have noticed that I said we must stay below 8,000 on the DOW which we did even though we rallied today. From the chart below, we hit my resistance target and ironically enough it’s roughly the 50% retracement of yesterday’s big move down. Honestly there is a lot of open air below all the way down to 7,750 so any more downside moves are again going to be very quick. Though our shorts took a couple percentages off our profits – 1-2% – we still had some short move even lower which is a great sign. Trading Video tonight will be very important with regard to new market targets for eventual LONG entries in the coming weeks.

Now, I also am looking for your opinions on something. As some of you have already noticed – and gosh you all are fast to email me when something changes on the blog – there is a new Option Writers page that is “under construction.” Per requests from hundreds of people, I am in the process of creating an Options Only newsletter for Wealth Creation purposes. This newsletter would be very – again VERY – in depth with regard to risk, reward, and time horizon of these Option trades. Basically, I am looking for your feedback so if you talk just 2 mins and let me know what you think I would appreciate it! Let me know your thoughts!

Natural Short Covering This Morning As I Expected

April 21st, 2009

I knew this was going to happen. Pre-market futures suggested a lower open, but I advised members this morning at around 8am that we could actually see a slightly higher day on some natural short covering. And, well, here we are up about 1% as of this writing. But again, this is very natural as markets don’t move straight up and down. On the chart of the DOW below, as long as we stay below 8,000 mark we should see some selling pick back up. My thinking is that today we end up but tomorrow we resume the fall. Let’s see how we end the day…