Day Trading – The Bullz And Bearz

Fed Continues To Mortgage Our Future As Markets Rise

March 18th, 2009

Markets Rally On Fed News, Loaded Up My Short Gun

March 18th, 2009

First, did everyone notice how bad treasuries got killed today? Just look on the right side of this page under Live Market Quotes TNX. Now, in the spirit of making this blog a genuine display of my trading I can tell you honestly that I’ve had much better days than this one. Granted I didn’t lose enough money to make me scared by any means. But we did have a bunch of shorts with very tight leashes that got stopped out today – albeit at small losses but losses nevertheless. So in a sense it felt like we were getting stopped out of everything left and right. Of course - as I have mentioned in the past - we did have a few longs that helped protect us overall.

Now, I may sound like a broken record – surprising right - but I’ll sound like a prophet later on when the markets do what I’m expecting. Today we neared 800 on very strong volume. Everything from GOLD, FUTURES, and FOREX was going crazy – but only up until around 3pm when we started to see things give back their gains. Just look at the EUR/USD’s gains. Notice that once it broke above resistance at the Fib retracement level in purple, it ran right up to it’s Fib fan level in blue. Prime example of quickly moving from areas of support to resistance!

Anyone who thinks we can continue this momentum forever – or even through next week – without seeing a major correction and pull-back is crazy. As such I have loaded up the short gun pretty heavily late this afternoon – per member alerts. Many of these are going to take a week or two to show 20%+ profits but the opportunities right now are amazing. Below is just one short I’m very interested in. If you remember, it’s actually our old friend MET – remember the long we made over 37% (and wish we would have held onto into the 110% profit range).

I promise there will be a trading video tonight. I got caught up in a coaching session last night with another member that went fairly late. But, we have too much to go over together to miss out tonight. It’s going to be very important to watch!

Options Expiration Nears, Futures Down On Economic Concerns

March 18th, 2009

I have been waiting for the past couple of days to see a fairly decent correction in the markets and I think we are going to start the process today. Options expiration week is always known for having large swings at the end of the week. My opinion is that we will have one or two smaller days before a big move to the downside later in the week. Of course, the move back down to 730 on the S&P will not happen in one day, but I’m sure we have to get down near that level sometime this week before we move any higher in the short term.

My portfolio continues to stay very very hedged with an equal amount of shorts and longs. Still, if we start to move ANY higher today, I’ll be buying some more index puts for sure. Above are my new targets for the S&P. If we reach the first resistance level above us at 790, you had better believe I’ll be buying up puts. On another note, I also have a chart of the S&P weekly pivot points. As you can see we are very close to the first R1 resistance zone. And look how far away the closest support is from here – all the way down at 700.

Irish Luck Push Markets Higher, Stall At Major Fib Level

March 17th, 2009

Pretty good day here for the bullz – I guess they had some lucky gold we all didn’t know about. They seemed to push higher all day after a lower open. As I advised member’s I closed out my SPY puts with a good profit soon after the markets started rallying this morning – and thankfully so. I’m still predicting a fairly good correction coming soon considering how overbought we are – but today is not the day to start shorting just yet considering the strength. Whether it happens tomorrow or later this week, I can assure you that major bottoms are not put in place in less than a week.

From the DOW chart above you can see that we have pushed up right underneath a major Fib retracement level (circled in Blue). If you take a look back in time you can see that we have been pretty obedient to the retracements and I feel like this is no exception. We have rallied right up to resistance on relatively weak daily volume. On another note, Oil has done fairly well recently but it too has rallied up to resistance. Notice a pattern?

I think you regulars know how I feel about buying into resistance areas. I’ll do a New Trading Video later tonight after another Coaching Session.

Bernanke Needs “Massive” Asset Purchases, Housing Starts Rise

March 17th, 2009

Happy St. Patrick’s Day! The futures are fairly flat this morning following bad news from Uncle Ben Bernanke but good news from the housing sector. For Uncle Ben, nearly two days after his prime-time interview say that the economy would recover, here he is now saying that we would need “massive” asset purchases to counteract this recession. Well enough about the news, what are the chart saying right? I think we are going to see a very clam but a slow sell off today. I still have a bunch of SPY puts that I would like to close out but I will let this pull-back move as far as possible before taking profits – hopefully with some irish luck. My financials trade is also looking great pre-market thus far. Here are the S&P support and resistance levels. You all remember how accurate they were yesterday.

Picking Market Tops And The 98% Trade

March 16th, 2009

Sometimes I Love Being Right

March 16th, 2009

I guess my 76% chance of a one day reversal was a pretty accurate statement yesterday. Also, I had mentioned here on the blog earlier today that I was buying puts on the SPY (see previous post). From the chart below, you can see that after I sent out an alert to members - circled in BLUE - the markets quickly reversed course and ended the day down. My SPY puts are deep in the money. I think this chart speaks for itself…

Buying Some More Shorts and Puts

March 16th, 2009

Here we are again with another rally today. My long positions are still doing amazing and our shorts have not been beaten up that badly too. I still think we are way over-bought short term here in the markets and as I mentioned this morning, I’m buying puts on the S&P at these high levels. Taking a look at the intra-day chart below, you can see we have gone nearly straight up without any break. These are great levels to be shorting from, believe me.

As for the one that got away, take a look at MET. Granted, members and I made nearly 40% on this long in about 3 days, but now it’s up over 90% since our original long date. Though I would love to be long this right now, it’s looking more and more like a great short opportunity than anything at these levels.

Barclays Outlook Sends Futures Up For 5th Day, Bearz Load Guns

March 16th, 2009

After some great early morning news from Barclays, the US futures are trading higher for the 5th straight day. They are off their best levels of the morning, but are still up nearly 1% as a whole. As I talked about in this weekend’s Trading Video and also in the Member’s Only Video, I had a pretty strong conviction that today would have been a down day. While of course we are still in the early hours of the trading day – meaning that I still think we might close down today – I can say one thing pretty confidently – if we get to 775 on the S&P I’m buying put options.

Regardless, as member’s know I have a good helping of both longs and shorts, so honestly I’m not going to be “mad” by any means if we go higher today because I will make money on our long positions. Still, I think we are headed for a very profitably correction for us short-term bearz in the markets. Be back mid-day if it gets interesting out there!

Technical Analysis Shines Once More, Herd Late As Usual

March 14th, 2009

Let me try to sum up this week in one word: UP! It almost seems like weeks have gone by since we were down in the 600′s on the S&P. In nearly 4 days, we have literally witnessed a complete reversal in market psychology. The news broadcasters are claiming it’s the beginning of the “New Bull Market” on every channel. They have analyst after analyst screaming “BUY!” And rightfully so considering how far we moved up this week in percentage terms. Can you blame them for wanting to attract clients?

But to be honest, this is exactly the kind of mentality that dumb money – the crowd, the herd, whatever you want to call them – always follows. They are late – as usual – to the dinner table and the profitable moves. Once they see big moves they jump in hand over foot to get a piece of the action. They chase moves instead of being ahead of them. Nevertheless, they always end up missing out on big money – like the 30%+ moves that members and I profited on this week.

It’s times like these that I cannot stress enough how important it is to use technical analysis. Charting will always show the early signs of reversals and big moves in the market. Because if a some securities big move made it all the way to the news, then you have completely missed out on it! Having said this I think that we are definitely headed for a pull back next week. Yes we have made a very strong bullish move – there’s no doubting that – but this market will not go straight up. There will be another Member’s Only video tomorrow night with my strategy for next week – imagine if you saw it last week how much money you would have made? In the Trading Video below I went into detail on GOLD, OIL, and the S&P.

Protected: Member’s Only Portfolio Video

March 14th, 2009

Paper Profits Turned Into Real Profits

March 13th, 2009

The markets are really battling this morning as I had mentioned they would this morning and last night. We all know a market this fundamentally sick is going to have a tough time moving higher. As far as my longs from this morning, most of them hit our tight stops around lunch time while a couple of others are still working their way higher. While I would have been pleased to see some more profits today, I really cannot complain with over 40% returns in a just 4 days! So, as of this moment I am again hedge for both directions with a fairly even split of shorts and longs.

For this market to move higher over the next couple of days, I think we need to re-test the area in blue below. Once we get down there, we should have a pretty good base for the next move higher. Of course if we break that level, down we go again.

Protecting Six Figure Profits Can Be Tricky

March 13th, 2009

We are all human. Fear and greed as such critical pieces of a person’s trading style these days that sometimes its hard to ignore them however hard we might try. I have to admit, I am battling those same emotions right now given what has happened in the past 3 days. But, as all good traders do, I have placed my stops very tight and will not let my emotions take control of my trading strategy. Believe me, I have a six figure profit right now on my longs from 3 days ago. I would love nothing more than to close these positions out, take my money and run. Still, I go back to an old trading quote, “Let your winners run and cut your losses short.” Regardless, of where the markets go today I will keep all the profits that I have currently locked in with my stop orders. As for my overall opinion, I think intra-day we head higher but sell off before the weekend. To see last night’s Trading Video, just click here.

As always, here are my S&P support and resistance targets for today.

Bernie Headed To Jail While Markets Soar Higher…For Now

March 12th, 2009

Rolling In The Profits, Markets Rally More Than 4%

March 12th, 2009

Hey, does it look like this market got really strong overnight for some reason? I think that these past few days have been absolutely amazing! What else can I say other than the fact that I our long positions have been stellar. I keep getting email after email from members who made over $10K, $20K or even one guy who made over $150K – this one’s for you Gavin – in just these past three days based on my trades. Honestly, I’ve been glad to help show the way for you guys. Below is a chart of JUST ONE of our long trades in green which is currently sporting a 37% profit.

As for the overall market strenght, we bumbed up to a pretty good short term resistance level here today. Not to mention that we have gone up over 10% in such a short time that it almost begs “short term selling.” I’m going to be adjusting my stops for the second time today before the open tomorrow depending on what happens early tomorrow morning. My gut tells me we are going to see a lot of profit taking – myself included. See you all later tonight for another Trading Video!

It’s Like Being A Kid In A Trading Candy Store

March 12th, 2009

Well, another great day for our LONGS thus far. Most if not all of our positions are up another 6-7% today on very good volume. After what looked to be a flat day early this morning, the markets seemed to get a nice big spark from GE news which sent them much higher into the 4% rally today. And how about that MADOFF fellow – what a guy right? Regardless, I think we are getting close to intra-day resistance. As you can see from the chart below – which is a 10 day look at the S&P – were are just under the reversal levels. So, I would advise that we watch this area like hawks throughout the close today. I have already moved up my stops on my longs as members know to lock in about a 25% return on each one!

Retail Sales Data, Jobless Claims Better Than Expected

March 12th, 2009

Good morning traders! Looks like we are in for another choppy day of trading. The futures were down for most of the morning until the retail sales data and jobless claims report came out showing lingering signs of economic stabilization out there somewhere, and they have since rallied back. Regardless of where we eventually end up today, I think the most likely situation is that we pull back a bit more to re-test the area somewhere around the midpoint of the huge move we had on Tuesday – or roughly 700 on the S&P. From there we should likely see re-newed buyers coming back into the market. Here is the updated S&P support and resistance targets. Again, I can’t urge you enough to put these levels on your charts and use them for intra-day trading targets!

I have kept the stops on my longs fairly loose after moving them into small profit range yesterday. So, no matter what happens I am going to make money on all of them. But, I want to give this weak market room to move and do not what to get stopped out prematurely before the next big thrust up. It’ll be interesting to see how GOLD and OIL react today to determine if they are worthy of any sort of position. I’ll probably be back sometime during today’s actions to recap for everyone so check back soon. Happy Trading!

Taking A Big Breathe After Yesterday’s Rally

March 11th, 2009

As expected, the markets took a minor day off from its new bullish mode. I had mentioned earlier this morning that I was expecting a minor pull back from natural profit taking after a nearly 7% one day move up. Still, I am glad to see the market shake off mid-day losses for some slightly positive gains. Gold is starting to make a short term bottom which is becoming very interesting but just not enough so to start going long – I’ll let you know of course when we reach the long Gold point. As for member’s longs, I sent out an early morning update advising everyone to take profits on MET after the open this morning which looking back was an amazing call as you can see from the graph below.

Our complete trade consisted of the area inside the GREEN box. My idea behind this was of course that a move of over 40% – which is what we made in LESS than 3 DAYS on this trade – was getting unsustainable. And, as you can see, MET sold off pretty good through out the rest of the day. Now, does this mean that it won’t come back hard tomorrow? Of course not, but when you are staring a 40% profit in the face, you have to take money off the table – period. I’ll be back later tonight after a coaching session with a NEW TRADING VIDEO.

US Futures Continue Climb After UBS Posts $18B Loss

March 11th, 2009

Good morning traders! I hope everyone got some sleep last night after that huge rally yesterday of over 6%. I know I was very busy yesterday keeping track of my profits to make sure they didn’t disappear on me. First and foremost, if you didn’t watch the TRADING VIDEO from last night I suggest you do that this morning.

As for the markets this morning, the futures are posting pretty healthy gains as of this writing – up nearly 1% already. Granted, a move like we had yesterday is not something I think we can do again today but the continued rally is a pretty good indicator of re-newed bullish energy in the markets. I will note that the news from UBS and the news about BAC and C bondholders is not great for the financials and will likely lead to some pessimism in the market today. Regardless, I have already updated my stops to lock in some profits in just one day. As always, here are the S&P support and resistance targets for you today.

Here’s How You Make 30% In ONE Day…

March 10th, 2009