Day Trading – The Bullz And Bearz

New Long Term Target For S&P…360

February 28th, 2009

Here are the technical facts for the S&P. This week we closed below both the 2002 and 2008 lows which is very concerning for the health of our markets. After looking back to a long term chart of the S&P going back to the 1920′s, the double top pattern that we just completely broke suggest that our new target – again long term – for the S&P is somewhere around 360. I know it sounds scaring but here are some hopeful thoughts.

First, I don’t think we are going to go straight down to that level anytime soon. If anything, we should technically see a slow forming rally sometime in the near future. This will of course present the most amazing shorting opportunity that ever existed for us traders – ever! Mark my words, after we get back into prime shorting area – my target is around 1,100 on the S&P - the people who go short are going to make millions and millions of dollars! Of course this is not only me opinion, but the opinions of some very respectable money mangers and other professional traders.

As you can see in the long term chart of the S&P below, we have significantly broken the 200-Month moving average and have successfully broken the neckline of the double top formation.

As for the current market direction, I think that the close near the lows on Friday show significant weakness in the markets. Until we see some sort of buying from the bullz we are going to slowly bleed away into lower levels. Regardless, there are stocks that are great looking shorts and there are also those that are amazing longs. As members know, I made major changes and additions to my portfolio on Friday! I continue to stay hedged for both directions, but let me be as up-front as possible – we are positioned to make baskets of money over the next couple of weeks regardless of where the direction in the market.

Tomorrow I will be sending out another Member’s Only trading video to re-cap my portfolio this weekend! I urge everyone to take a look at all their positions closely this weekend and really re-evaluate your risk profile for each trade. These are the times when a little bit of analysis and homework will save or make you thousands of dollars.

Markets Tease Us With Brief Morning Rally

February 26th, 2009

Thought we were going to get a sustained rally today when we opened up nearly 120 points higher on the DOW. I guess that was just another brief test of intra-day resistance levels where the bullz again failed to come through strong. Still, I wasn’t that worried considering my shorts did great – again – and members and I had a long position that was up over 30% today even when the markets fell. I guess that just goes to show you that technical analysis is by far the best and most profitable way to trade and invest – period. I cannot even list the number of analyst who put buy ratings on companies that are off 60-80% in the last 6 months – there are just too many! So, I’ll stick to my charts while others read over 10-K’s and watch their portfolio’s dwindle by the day. In the trading video tonight I went over a bunch of new trading ideas, so check it out now. Happy Trading!

Rounding The Bases – Gold, Oil And GE

February 25th, 2009

Waiting To Pull The Trigger On GE

February 25th, 2009

Just as I was expecting, a slight pull back in the markets today. It even looked like a down right sell-off earlier this morning, but the bullz found some solid ground again and came back near the end of the day. I did want to mention that on the daily chart we formed another high wave doji pattern – small real body with longer upper and lower shadows – which just signals more indecision, but at least we didn’t have the 2% drop right? As for the hedged portfolio of mine, today was rock solid with very respectable gains all around which is exactly what I’m looking for in a volatile market like this.

I have to say that the chart of GE looked very interesting today. The spike in volume coupled with how oversold it is makes me think this could easily rally back to the resistance line drawn around $12.00 and complete a clean retracement. Still, I just cannot find it in myself to take a long position yet in it. Maybe tomorrow will be different, but right now these doji patterns have me on the sidelines.

On a FOREX note, the GBP/USD is looking pretty weak as it moves into contact with it’s 50-day moving average. We also got a very clean bearish engulfing pattern today following some longer upper shadows the last couple of days. I think this pair could be back down to 1.35 in the blink of an eye.

I have a religious obligation tonight that will keep me away until later this evening. I will however be back at sometime with a new Trading Video, so check back frequently. Happy Trading!

Will Obama Speech Drain The Market’s Energy

February 25th, 2009

Good Morning! After watching the speech last night by our new President Obama, I found myself getting tons of emails from people suggesting that the markets are going to sell off again today – as they usually do when Obama speaks. FranklyI don’t see us erasing all of our gains from yesterday, but as I mentioned on the Trading Video last night, we could see a slight pull back from normal profit taking. As the futures suggest, this is exactly what might happen today. I am still looking for the markets to rally near 825 on the S&P before I get out of my long positions and ride the next short wave down. Below are today’s intra-day support and resistance levels for the S&P. If we make it up to the first resistance level at 787 I’ll place a very small bet for a one day reversal. Now, if we get anywhere near my 809 level you can be sure I will be exiting my longs and going short. That type of two day move is very unsustainable and would almost certainly warrant a reversal.

How Did We Make 26% Shorting When The Markets Rallied?

February 24th, 2009

Dominos Pizza – Large Short With Extra Profit

February 24th, 2009

Talk about a turn around in the markets today. Yesterday down nearly 3.5% and today up nearly 4%. I don’t want to say I saw this coming, but I have said that the market was over-sold. As for my portfolio, today was down right amazing! First, DPZ (Dominos) opened down and hard this morning on earnings news. After moving down nearly 26% today alone, members and I took profits below $4.80 on this short at nearly the exact low of the day. Of course I will go over this tonight in the Trading Video, but I had to mention it here. As for our other shorts, one was down nearly 15% today when the markets were rallying. Talk about a great day of trading. Our general trading strategy over the last few months has been working out great and will continue to but more money in member’s pockets – if you are a member of course. See you tonight for the Trading Video.

Stocks Fall Around The World, US Futures Signal Higher Open

February 24th, 2009

Good Morning! Hopefully everyone survived yesterday’s sell-off. After spending some more time last night scanning my charts – hundreds of them – I am still convinced that we have gotten way oversold on the index charts. With all of my new longs from Friday of last week that took a bit of a beating yesterday, I’m pretty confident they will start to come back around this week. Still, as members know, we are very hedged at this point and every day that we close down is just another great day for our short positions. Below you will see the new S&P support and resistance levels that I updated for you all. I just wanted to point out that if we break below the first support level around 730 today in green I will be buying up index calls because the chances of a reversal would get to almost 90%. If I were you, I would watch these levels very close today for a great intra day trade on the SPYs or DIAs. Let’s see what the day brings us. Happy  Trading!

After A 3.5%+ Nose Dive, We’re Left Sitting On The Edge

February 23rd, 2009

After Looking At Hundreds Of Charts, Here’s What I Think

February 22nd, 2009

Well, I’ve looked over hundreds and hundreds of charts this weekend. Actually twice because I looked at them and then came back and looked over them again just to make sure. So, here’s my view. First, there are still tons of stocks that are way overbought and need to correct before they continue moving up. Some of these are up almost 100% since their recent lows which is unrealistic to maintain. Second, there are also a bunch of stocks that are really cheap and forming very bullish patterns. Retracements of breakouts, volume indicators, you name it, I’ve seen at least one great looking long trade. So to make money over the next couple of weeks, I’ll be working both sides of the market while keeping my stops very tight. As members know, I already sent out a Member Specific trading video updating them on all my positions and I think we are in a great position to make a ton of money trading this month! My advice, look over all your positions and really think about the reasons your in them. If you find yourself asking and questioning yourself too much – close out the position. See you tomorrow morning with updated S&P levels!

Okay I Admit…The Market’s Are Oversold

February 20th, 2009

Hammering Out A Base…For Now

February 20th, 2009

What a wild ride today…I could barely keep track of the movements myself and I watch the markets all day. Our shorts were looking beautiful this morning when the DOW was off nearly 200+ points, but now have taken a small beaten. While I hate losing money, I still am confident about these shorts over the next couple of weeks. As for the late day rally, we have formed a very clean hammer at support on the index charts, so I felt good about taking some long positions before the close. Many of these are great risk/reward trades and should do amazing! I’ll be doing another video tonight to recap the week so be on the look out for that as well. Also, I’ll be recording a MEMBER SPECIFIC video to go over all my positions and trades…better sign up if you haven’t already!

Trading Tip: Don’t Trade Just To “Trade”

February 18th, 2009

Coming Hat In Hand, GM Asking For More Money

February 18th, 2009

Good Morning! First, if you didn’t get to see last night’s video I strongly suggest watching it before we begin. As for today’s actions, like I said last night, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a small rally here today – even if it’s just for a little while – given how oversold we are on the daily chart. Having said that, let’s not get carried away by any rally today as a sign of the bottom – which the media will hope to project. Markets move in rhythm and never straight up or down. As for my shorts, I’ve updated stops a bit, but still remain comfortably letting these run their course and make us a lot of money. As usual, here are the updated S&P support and resistance targets for today.

Markets Fall 4.5%, As Economy Falls Out Of Bed

February 17th, 2009

Stimulus Bill Only Stimulates More Selling, Markets Down 4.5%

February 17th, 2009

Talk about your all time back fire! I thought this bill was supposed to help the economy, not set it on another path towards another huge decline. Regardless, today was a great day for members and I. Our longs from last week we sold at nearly the recent highs and have been riding down our shorts – some of which were down nearly 8% today alone. As usual, we have a lot to talk about tonight on the trading video which won’t be until later tonight as I have a meeting to attend. But, I did want to point out how well my S&P levels worked again today. As you can see below, what was once support at 801 acted as the last resistance level today before the closing sell off. Note that the highs of the day were 801.20 and my level was 801.08. Not bad for these intra-day targets!

Already Down 3% In 30 Min

February 17th, 2009

Of course the day is not over yet, but this big open to the downside is just want we are looking for. If history repeats itself, we might see a rally into the close as bottom feeders move in and buy up the market. But, if we hold these lower levels into the close…watch out below!

Markets Looking Over The Edge…

February 17th, 2009

Good morning! Well, its very safe to say that the markets will open up much lower today after the long weekend. Pre-market futures are lower this morning by almost 1.75%. To make things clear and blunt – as I usually tend to do on this blog – we have to get out of this S&P range to really make it anywhere. Whether we have a one or two day sell off or slowly bleed into the 700′s, it needs to start happening soon for us to make some more money. Granted the little daily moves have been great for my portfolio, but we need some more sustained moves to make the big bucks this month. Let’s hope the markets just decided where they want to go! Here are the S&P intra-day support and resistance targets, in case you missed them yesterday. Again, the more stretched we get, the larger your bets will become.

Options Expiration Week – Here Comes Uncle Volatility

February 16th, 2009

As well all know too well, options expiration week can be flat out mess for a market trying to gain it’s footing and rally. Depending on what economic and/or stimulus news we get should really set the direction or this week.

Again, I remain convinced that until we breakout of this trading range on the S&P, we will just bounce our heads against the wall trying to pick the next move. It’s always better to wait for the right set-ups than to waste money picking bottoms or tops. Here are the updated S&P intra-day resistance and support targets for tomorrow.

On a side note, you can see that the Coaching page is now updated and complete so please take a look at it when you get time. It’s only been online for less than a day and I already have two people who signed up! Talk about determined to become successful!

Are We Forming A Mini Gold Bubble?

February 14th, 2009

I’ll get to gold later in the trading video, but I think it’s pretty over-bought here in the short term. All the charts I am looking at for gold and silver are screaming short! Still, as we all know in bubbles – and in general for any security – they always can go much higher than we ever expect. As for the boring trading range we continue to be in with the S&P, I am still convinced we need to make a break above 875 or sell off below 800 before I start buying index calls or puts. Granted, the hammer formation that we formed on Thursday was pretty important for the bullz, but we still have a lot of over-head resistance to get through in the next move up. On the video today I also went over a great representation of an open gaping or open window trade. I’m hoping to do another post tomorrow night if any news ideas sneak into my mind. See you all soon!